Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 08-19-2014
The averages fell fractionally towards the afternoon closing bell and volume remained in the anemic zone. Trading became quiet during the same period and the HFT algo computers didn’t have much effect on the market bullishness or the lack of.
By 4 pm the markets close without much fanfare, just closed quietly in the face on the impending Fed Meeting in Jackson Hole this week.
The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 0.59. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators have started to turn bearish.
Investing.com members’ sentiments are 49 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.
StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at 52.97. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) It is now around the area where it turns and start to descend, but any thing below -30 / -40 is a concern. Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50 and reverse after reaching +40 oversold. Today’s 52.97 might mean a reversal in our near future.
Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further. This chart clearly shows that dropping below 65.50 should be of a great concern to bullish investors. Today it gaped up to 66.04 and that is another notch in the gun signaling that we might have another reversal very soon – at least to cover the gap. Protect thyself!
The DOW at 4:00 is at 16919 up 80 or 0.48%.
The SP500 is at 1982 up 9.83 or 0.50%.
SPY is at 198.37 up 1.03 or 0.52%.
The $RUT is at 1162 up 4 or 0.35%.
NASDAQ is at 4528 up 19 or 0.43%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 4040 up 20 or 0.49%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.16 down 0.16 or -1.30%. Neutral Movement
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The longer trend is up, the past months trend is net positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 94.36 (resistance) and 92.67 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 92.98. (Chart Here) There is a very large gap at 97.06 and these types of gaps are usually filled sooner rather than later. It would not surprise me to see the oils move back up in the very near future. (Chart Here) (Look at the 60 minute time scale.)
Brent Crude is trading between 102.07 (resistance) and 101.08 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and volatile and is currently trading down at 101.58. (Chart Here)
Gold fell from 1303.33 earlier to 1295.06 and is currently trading up at 1297.20. The current intra-session trend is sideways and volatile. (Chart Here)
Dr. Copper is at 3.089 falling from 3.122 earlier. (Chart Here)
The US dollar is trading between 81.95 and 81.61 and is currently trading up at 81.94, the bias is currently positive, sideways and quiet. (Chart Here)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation inequities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett
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Written by Gary