Market Commentary: Markets In The Green, But For How Long?

Written by Gary

Midday Market Commentary For 08-06-2014

By noon the averages were still melting upwards on volume that has fallen to anemic status. The Sp500 has once again retreated from the 100DMA, the DOW climbed fractionally back above the 145 DMA and the $VIX is trending down.

Is this enough for the bulls to continuing partying? I am concerned, but the positives still outweigh the negatives. Now is NOT the time to be taking chances and sitting on your hands for now may be the best action to take.

The medium term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned down, but remains below zero at -7.08. I would advise caution in taking any position during this uncertain period although some technical indicators are starting to turn bearish.

Investing.com members’ sentiments are 44 % bearish and when it switches over to bullish, as it did on Tuesday 8-5, watch for the market bottom to fall out some are saying as the markets usually go against ‘Sheeple’ buying high and selling low.

Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 59.5 % bullish with the status at Bear Confirmed. (Chart Here )

StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 62.82. (Chart Here) Very close to support.

StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 71.00. (Chart Here) Closed below support.

The Market Is Overpriced But The Correction Will Likely Be Shallow

StockChart.com Overbought / Oversold Index ($NYMO) is at -78.56. (Chart Here) (Need to type in $NYMO) Oversold conditions on the NYSE McClellan Oscillator usually bounce back at anything over -50, but this time things may be different – where have I heard this before? Tuesday’s (8-5) numbers are definitely not a good sign.

StockChart.com Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) is at 66.01. (Chart Here)

Chris Ciovacco says, “As long as the consumer discretionary ETF (NYSEARCA:XLY) holds above 67.06, all things being equal, it is a good sign for stocks and the U.S. economy.” (Actually the support looks to be in the 66.88 range) We have entered an area that concerns me should the XLY drops any further.

The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!

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The DOW at 12:15 is at 16475 up 45 or 0.27%.

The SP500 is at 1926 up 6 or 0.30%.

SPY is at 192.67 up 0.66 or 0.34%.

The $RUT is at 1131 up 9 or 0.83%.

NASDAQ is at 4375 up 22 or 0.50%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3892 up 17 or 0.44%.

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 15.78 down 1.09 or -6.46%. Bullish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been negative and the current bias is positive.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

Crude oil prices fall to six-month lows on refinery outlook

WTI oil is trading between 98.12 (resistance) and 97.34 (support) today. The session bias is neutral and is currently trading down at 97.44.

Brent Crude is trading between 105.43 (resistance) and 104.63 (support) today. The session bias is negative with volatility spikes and is currently trading down at 104.88.

Gold rose from 1289.01 earlier to 1310.50 and is currently trading down at 1305.90. The current intra-session trend is positive.

Dr. Copper is at 3.166 falling from 3.191 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 81.77 and 81.60 and is currently trading down at 81.64, the bias is currently neutral with a negative slant.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary