Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 07-01-2014
A slow, low volume session that produced questionable new record highs for the DOW, SP500 and the $RUT. The DOW and SP500 also had new historic closing highs while the $RUT closed below the March, 2014 high closing of 1208.65.
By 4 pm the averages were solidly in the green and many bulls were in the party mode once again as nervous investors were wondering if they should by tickets on the bull train leaving the station.
The likelihood of the markets opening up tomorrow morning are good, but the session out look is not as promising with only low level financial reporting in the morning. Factory Orders reports in at 10 am and could have a positive effect if the numbers are higher than the last report. The ADO Employment Change is expecting 205K increase and will have to be better, but not expected and that might dampen market euphoria among the bulls.
In the article below, the author points out that the stock market might be ‘suffering’ from euphoria of the continued market highs, but right now, there is nowhere else for investors to go for safer investments. But caution and a little care might be in order anyway.
Analysis: The bank for central banks says current monetary policies are outdated
Although near-zero rates are no longer effective in rallying the economy, they have sent investors into equities.
Last week’s dismal gross domestic product report, which showed a contraction of 2.9%, steeper than an earlier reading of minus 1%.
The real global economic recovery has been weak, with growth driven by emerging-market economies
Governments should not only try to reduce budget deficits but also attempt to encourage private-sector finance of infrastructure projects.
Central banks should wind down expansionary monetary policy without delay.
Congress needs to take the burden off Chairwoman Yellen and move above partisan politics to enact some sensible policies.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 14.95. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile period.
Barchart.com shows a 88 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 61 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.9 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
StockChart.com NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA) is at 73.86.
StockChart.com S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is at 83.20.
(Click on $BPNYA or $BPSPX to see chart)
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16956 up 129 or 0.77%.
The SP500 is at 1973 up 13 or 0.67%.
SPY is at 197.03 up 1.31 or 0.67%.
The $RUT is at 1206 up 13 or 1.09%.
NASDAQ is at 4459 up 50 or 1.14%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3894 up 45 or 1.17%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.15 down 0.42 or -3.63%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net even and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 106.08 (resistance) and 105.01 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and quiet and is currently trading down at 105.41.
Brent Crude is trading between 112.81 (resistance) and 112.08 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and quiet and is currently trading up at 112.21.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold fell from 1333.03 earlier to 1324.71 and is currently trading down at 1326.70. The current intra-session trend is trending down and quiet.
Dr. Copper is at 3.203 rising from 3.194 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.89 and 79.79 and is currently trading up at 79.84, the bias is currently sideways and very quiet.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary