Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 06-25-2014
Premarkets were down and the markets opened fractionally down. In a matter of minutes the averages melted up into the green and sea-sawed back and forth confirming yesterdays ‘guess’ that the markets would start the day with a consolidation or sideways trading.
By 10 am the averages were steadily climbing in the face of an unprecedented US Economy contraction to 1.7% on low to moderate volume.
The big news is this mornings report that the U.S. Economy shrank in the first quarter the most in five years. Bloomberg reports, “Gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annualized rate, more than forecast and the worst reading since the same three months in 2009, after a previously reported 1 percent drop, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. It marked the biggest downward revision from the agency’s second GDP estimate since records began in 1976. The revision reflected a slowdown in health care spending.”
The so-called ‘indications’ in the article below may explain why the markets didn’t crash.
The U.S. economy contracted at a much steeper pace than previously estimated in the first quarter, but there are indications that growth has since rebounded strongly.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.24. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 32 % buy. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 59 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.7 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 10:00 is at 16840 up 22 or 0.13%.
The SP500 is at 1951 up 1 or 0.05%.
SPY is at 194.74 up 0.06 or 0.04%.
The $RUT is at 1172 down 1 or -0.08%.
NASDAQ is at 4349 down 1 or -0.03%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3800 up 0.00 or 0.00%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.01 down 0.12 or -0.99%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is mixed and trending down.
WTI oil is trading between 107.45 (resistance) and 105.56 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 105.73.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.76 (resistance) and 113.24 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 113.34.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1311.39 earlier to 1321.89 and is currently trading down at 1318.10. The current intra-session trend is positive and trending sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.141 rising from 3.123 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.41 and 80.14 and is currently trading down at 80.22, the bias is currently negative. Gap at 80.32 indicating a positive movement back upwards.)
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary