Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-25-2014
Market continued the afternoon session melting upwards on invisible volume. Amazing what the HFT computers can do isn’t? A little crooked trickery from the ‘Wall Street Wizards’ and they get rich and we don’t.
By 4 pm everything was in the green and the $VIX also slid downwards looking bullish or stupidly complacent, your choice. This is only Wednesday and the averages look like they do on Friday afternoon.
I hope the pace picks up because I am bored to death. My editor looking over my shoulder just said, ‘Be careful of what you wish for’.
Just imagine how strong the rally would have been if US GDP had contracted by 5%?
The early weakness in US equities was instantly dismissed the moment US stock markets opened for trading to the general algo public (and POMO began to be disseminated).
The S&P retraced a perfect Fib 61.8% of its losses of yesterday’s highs and absolutely decoupled from the reality of FX (USDJPY for example) and bond (Treasury) markets suggesting today’s low-volume levitation (after big volume pre-open plunge) is nothing but a dead cat bounce.
Of course, the ammo for the magical ramp was a short-squeeze and a “VIX-Smash” but even that could not keep pace with the idiocy in stocks. Gold, silver, copper, and oil all rose along with stocks.
Late-day VIX-slam lifted the S&P to unch on the week (same as “most shorted” stocks) but was unable to extend. As we ‘joked’ before the open, “If the complete collapse of the US economy doesn’t send the S&P to new all time highs, nothing will.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.77. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 56 % buy. (UP from 36% this morning.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 59 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.7 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16868 up 49 or 0.29%.
The SP500 is at 1960 up 10 or 0.49%.
SPY is at 195.58 up 0.88 or 0.45%.
The $RUT is at 1183 up 9 or 0.80%.
NASDAQ is at 4380 up 29 or 0.68%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3827 up 28 or 0.73%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.59 down 0.54 or -4.45%. Bullish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is elevated and trending up.
WTI oil is trading between 107.45 (resistance) and 105.50 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 106.60.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.76 (resistance) and 113.24 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 114.14.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1311.39 earlier to 1325.62 and is currently trading up at 1320.50. The current intra-session trend is negative.
Dr. Copper is at 3.164 rising from 3.123 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.41 and 80.14 and is currently trading down at 80.26, the bias is currently positive. Gap at 80.32 indicating a positive movement back upwards.)
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary