Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 06-25-2014
Markets muddled along in positive territory on mostly falling volume with a spurt of either buying or selling which looks like it will end the session as a consolidation session on anemic volume.
By noon bullish investors were few and far between and the prospects of a few bears jumping in to take a bite were promising. Unless something interesting, I suspect this session is going to end up like the past two – boring.
There are more and more ‘bad signs’ being published every day pointing to the elusive correction that hasn’t happened – wait for it . . .
Announced stock buybacks have slowed sharply in the second quarter in a bad sign for U.S. markets, TrimTabs said in a note Wednesday.
Buyback announcements have fallen to $92.7 billion in the quarter from $138.5 billion in the first quarter. And for the month of June, buybacks have fallen to just $11.5 billion, the lowest monthly level since May of 2012, according to TrimTabs CEO David Santschi.
“The sharp slowdown in buybacks is a negative sign for the U.S. stock market,” Santschi said. “Share repurchases are the main way companies reduce the float of shares. Perhaps fewer companies like what they see when they look into the future.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 15.30. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 56 % buy. (UP from 36% this morning.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 59 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.7 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
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The DOW at 12:00 is at 16851 up 33 or 0.20%.
The SP500 is at 1954 up 4 or 0.23%.
SPY is at 195.16 up 0.40 or 0.21%.
The $RUT is at 1173 up 0.14 or 0.01%.
NASDAQ is at 4359 up 8 or 0.19%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3811 up 12 or 0.32%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.81 down 0.32 or -2.89%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been net negative and the current bias is elevated and trending up.
WTI oil is trading between 107.45 (resistance) and 105.53 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 106.16.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.76 (resistance) and 113.24 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 113.58.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1311.39 earlier to 1323.24 and is currently trading up at 1325.00. The current intra-session trend is positive and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.161 rising from 3.123 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.41 and 80.14 and is currently trading down at 80.22, the bias is currently negative. Gap at 80.32 indicating a positive movement back upwards.)
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary