Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 06-24-2014
Premarkets were down -0.08% on news that the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was down. Markets opened down -0.18% and the BTFDers jumped in melting numbers back up on low volume. By the 15 minute mark the averages were close to yesterday’s closing numbers with the small caps already in the green.
By 10 am the Consumer Confidence reported higher than expected and US New Home Sales came in higher too sending the markets shooting up where the SP500 set another new high (1916.94) and promptly melted down fractionally.
The BTFDers like the much better than expected US Data and temporally sent the averages up into the green, remaining flat. The SP500 old historical high appears to be a resistance and is currently remaining just below that mark.
The American consumer has not been as confident as this since January 2008… can you feel the confidence? The reaching for credit, the spending beyond your means; what could go wrong? Oddly, despite the exuberance, fewer people expect an increase in income (borrow or charge we assume?). The biggest driver of this confidence appears to be the spike from 79.7 to 99.5 in the Pacific region’s confidence… but plunged in the Mountain and Central regions.
There is a reason why Case-Shiller titled its summary presentation of the April housing market based on its 20-City Composite index “Rate of Home Price Gains Drop Sharply.” The reason is simple: in April the housing market, while still preserving some upward momentum, appears to stumbled severely in April, with the Y/Y increase in the 20-City composite rising “only” 10.8%, down from 12.37% the month before, and the lowest annual increase since April of 2013. And this time there is no snow to blame it on.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the opening. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 16.94. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 0 % hold. Investing.com members’ sentiments are 60 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 68.7 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
Bottom line here is that I have not seen any serious bears jumping out of the woods just yet, although I am VERY concerned that ANY minor correction could turn nasty in a heart beat. One significant signal would be daily losses in any of the major averages that go over the ‘magic’ 3 % and then you need to pay close attention to risk-off tactics. There hasn’t been a 10% correction in several years and some investors are becoming increasingly concerned an imminent correction is on the way.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
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The DOW at 10:15 is at 16942 up 5 or 0.03%.
The SP500 is at 1963 up 1 or 0.04%.
SPY is at 196.01 up 0.13 or 0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1187 up 2 or 0.21%.
NASDAQ is at 4384 up 16 or 0.36%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3825 up 19 or 0.51%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.01 up 0.03 or 0.27%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is cccccccc.
WTI oil is trading between 106.37 (resistance) and 105.28 (support) today. The session bias is elevated, volatile and mostly sideways and is currently trading down at 106.04.
Brent Crude is trading between 114.37 (resistance) and 113.55 (support) today. The session bias is elevated, volatile and mostly sideways and is currently trading up at 114.14.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1314.78 earlier to 1326.55, has reversed direction and is currently trading down at 1319.20. The current intra-session trend is negative and volatile.
Dr. Copper is at 3.142 rising from 3.125 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.38 and 80.25 and is currently trading up at 80.35, the bias is currently positive.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary