Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 06-12-2014
The large caps fell to a support level and bounced off it for today anyway. Going below 1924 for the SP500 and 16715 for the DOW would be considered bearish and would most likely signal the start of a correction. Not helping matters is the escalating matters in Iraq sending oil futures skyward.
By 4 pm investors were being left seriously wondering if now is the time to sell or believe in the bulls. Roll your dice!
Volume was moderately higher today and like yesterday may help signal market direction for tomorrow – down. Typically, the markets have either recovered on the third day or go on to further their losses. Also, typically, this has been a good time to pick up bargains and we need to watch where the BTFDers are concentrating tomorrow.
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close, but getting nervous. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding (and getting nervous). The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned flat, but remains above zero at 17.15. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 48 % buy. (up from 40% sell this morning) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 68 % bearish and Investors Intelligence sets the breath at 67.3 % bullish with the status at Bear Correction.
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW at 4:00 is at 16734 down 110 or -0.65%.
The SP500 is at 1930 down 14 or -0.71%.
SPY is at 193.80 down 1.38 or -0.71%.
The $RUT is at 1159 down 7.31 or -0.63%.
NASDAQ is at 4298 down 34 or -0.79%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3764 down 34 or -0.90%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.48 up 0.88 or 7.59%. Bearish Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been mixed and the current bias is negative.
Oil Update by Marc Chandler
WTI oil is trading between 106.77 (resistance) and 104.37 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 106.75.
Brent Crude is trading between 112.73 (resistance) and 109.40 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading down at 112.60.
Maybe I’m Wrong – Justifying $2,000+ Gold by Jeffrey Dow Jones
Gold rose from 1260.10 earlier to 1275.05 and is currently trading down at 1273.50. The current intra-session trend is elevated and sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.014 falling from 3.047 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.83 and 80.53 and is currently trading down at 80.56, the bias is currently negative.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary