Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 05-28-2014
Afternoon trading volume was light and we watched the HFT algo computers move the averages up and down in a tight trading range. The SP500 made another new high at 1914 while the DOW has floundered in the red. Importantly, the SP500 closed below its historic closing high (1911) again emphasizing market weakness.
By 4 pm the averages closed down in a minor sell-off with the small caps off -0.28%, the $RUT off -0.48% and the DOW flailing at -0.25%. The warning is out as this bull (figuratively and literally) can not last forever.
Our proprietary indicators are showing a distinct negative slant for tomorrow. The swings are showing ‘tension’ in the markets ability to continue a short term trend. In this case, the higher the market goes, the more likelihood there will be a correction regardless of any bullish sentiment.
“…for those who find our work to be a constant source of irritation to be regarded with open disdain, I am retracting all of it herewith – for you alone mind you – and I leave you free to buy with both hands to whatever extent you are inclined.
Not that I encourage it really – that would be bad Karma – but someone is going to have to hold equities at these prices. It would best be those who are fully aware of our concerns and prefer to reject them.
So the more you dislike my work, and particularly if you are nasty about it, I have no objection to you accumulating – perhaps on margin – as much stock from other investors as possible.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 8.95. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 96 % buy. (GASP! We will have to see how that holds up tomorrow.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 69 % bearish.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16633 down 42 or -0.25%.
The SP500 is at 1910 down 2.13 or -0.11%.
SPY is at 191.40 down 0.14 or -0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1137 down 6 or -0.48%.
NASDAQ is at 4225 down 12 or -0.28%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3712 down 11 or -0.29%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.68 up 0.17 or 1.48%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is trending up, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is negative.
WTI oil is trading between 104.39 (resistance) and 102.66 (support) today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading up at 102.93.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.39 (resistance) and 109.43 (support) today. The session bias was negative and now trending sideways with a positive slant and is currently trading up at 109.88.
Gold fell from 1267.42 earlier to 1256.28 and is currently trading up at 1258.90. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 3.169 falling from 3.190 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.62 and 80.37 and is currently trading down at 80.60, the bias is currently sideways and quiet.
Real Time Market Numbers
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Written by Gary