Written by Gary
Midday Market Commentary For 05-23-2014
Markets climbed above the SP500 historical closing high benchmark of 1897 and remained there trading sideways in a tight narrow band on anemic volume. This anemic volume may be precursor to some volatile action later today and the caution flags are out and very red.
As some of out most outspoken bears have said, ‘the market didn’t crash this week, maybe next week’. It is interesting that the large caps are flirting with their historical highs, but there doesn’t seem much interest in actually testing them. Where are all of the BTFD bulls that are so damn sure the markets are going to sail higher? This lack of commitment has made me very nervous about a continuing bull market.
The Dangerous, Neurotic Market
The biggest issues we are facing.
Understanding two very different messages from bonds and stocks about the economy.
Why the bond market is usually right. Read now»
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the midday. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, and remains above zero at 6.14. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 72 % buy. (Was 24% sell at the opening. Talk about short term indicators!) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 69 % bearish.
The markets are still susceptible to climbing on ‘Bernankellen’ vapor, use caution!
If you would like to get advanced buy/sell tweets, sign-up in the column to the right of this post by clicking on the ‘Follow‘ button. Write me with suggestions and I promise not to bite.
The DOW at 12:15 is at 16599 up 56 or 0.34%.
The SP500 is at 1899 up 6 or 0.34%.
SPY is at 190.24 up 0.65 or 0.34%.
The $RUT is at 1123 up 9 or 0.82%.
NASDAQ is at 4174 up 20 or 0.49%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3667 up 16 or 0.44%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 11.67 down 0.36 or -2.99%. Neutral Movement
(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is elevated and sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 104.45 (resistance) and 103.65 (support) today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 104.37.
Brent Crude is trading between 110.66 (resistance) and 110.25 (support) today. The session bias is sideways and volatile and is currently trading up at 110.38.
Gold fell from 1295.67 earlier to 1287.01 and is currently trading down at 1292.00. The current intra-session trend is sideways, but trending down.
Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices
Dr. Copper is at 3.168 rising from 3.135 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.49 and 80.28 and is currently trading up at 80.44, the bias is currently elevated with a positive trend.
Real Time Market Numbers
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary
Leave a Reply