Market Commentary: Markets Close In The Red, But Just Barely

Written by Gary

Closing Market Commentary For 05-02-2014

Afternoon averages sea-sawed back and forth between gains and losses, but mostly just plane flat and lackluster. Volume was anemic for most of the afternoon and 75% of the office left early to go home. (why do I have to stay?)

By 4 pm many investors threw their hands up in dubiety as it is looking more and more we have seen the top but they are still not ready to sell. Again I see the red flags of caution and the old bear starting to lie down.

I agree that this may not be the time to jump ship as we have seen were, at the last minute, the stocks have rallied and gone on to new highs. I have increased my cash position because when (and if) the markets decide to fall, it could very well be a blood bath of investors trying to catch a falling knife.

In past articles here we have shown the various reasons why the markets will have a sharp correction and that it is in the near future. The big question is it going to be a real blow-out as some have suggested or a gentle summer breeze with wisps of Jasmine fragrance accentuating the mode? Nah, I didn’t think so either.

Apparently, there is a relatively significant resistance seen clearly on the SP500 at 1891 as today marks the 4th time the average has either closed or backed off that level. Going above 1891 may be accomplished next week, but it will be really tough sledding from there.

The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the close. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The important DMA’s, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a past 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. The SP500 MACD has turned up, but remains above zero at 6.61. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % sell. (Remember this has been negative for weeks.) Investing.com members’ sentiments are 65% bearish.

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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16513 down 46 or -0.28%.

The SP500 is at 1881 down 2.54 or -0.13%.

SPY is at 188.03 down 0.27 or -0.14%.

The $RUT is at 1129 up 3 or 0.25%.

NASDAQ is at 4124 down 4 or -0.09%.

NASDAQ 100 is at 3588 down 7 or -0.19%.

$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 12.91 down 0.34 or -2.57%. Slightly Bullish Movement

(Follow Real Time Market Averages at end of this article)

The longer trend is up, the past months trend is sideways, the past 5 sessions have been positive and the current bias is down and sideways.

How Oil Really Gets Priced

WTI oil is trading between 100.10 (resistance) and 99.28 (support) today. The session bias is volatile and sideways and is currently trading down at 99.81.

Brent Crude is trading between 108.85 (resistance) and 107.60 (support) today. The session bias is elevated and sideways and is currently trading down at 108.56.

Gold fell from 1288.25 earlier to 1275.18. It has sense turned around and has climbed to 1304.39 and is currently trading down at 1298.60. The current intra-session trend is elevated and sideways.

Analysts forecast a corrosive year for copper prices

Dr. Copper is at 3.066 rising from 3.013 earlier.

The US dollar is trading between 79.55 and 79.91 and is currently trading up at 79.57, the bias is currently down and sideways.

Real Time Market Numbers

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Written by Gary