Written by Gary
Closing Market Commentary For 03-25-2014
The averages eased back up into the green on low volume around 1:30 this afternoon and spent the rest of the session sea-sawing up and down. The Russell 2000 remained in the red and flat while the rest of the major averages were up some +0.30%.
By 4 pm many investors are wondering just how long this sideways channel is going to last as shown here on the SP500 daily chart.
The interesting thing about today’s closing is that the volume remained low and with out selling or buying spikes which is the norm.
Many have said the Fed has gone overboard with ‘stimulus’ that has been ineffective, myself among the many. We now have a new member of the Fed hate club.
As Fortune’s Stephen Gandel begins, “if you hate the Fed, you have a new hero.”
He is referring to none other than GMO’s Jeremy Grantham who aggressively takes on the status-quo-hugging faith in the omnipotence in Central banking prowess with fact and anecdote in this brief interview…“Higher interest rates would have increased the wealth of savers.
Instead, they became collateral damage of Bernanke’s policies. The theory is that lower interest rates are supposed to spur capital spending, right? Then why is capital spending so weak at this stage of the cycle. T
here is no evidence at all that quantitative easing has boosted capital spending.
We have always come roaring back from recessions, even after the mismanaged Great Depression. This time we are not..we have never had such a limited recovery.”
The short term indicators are leaning towards the hold side at the closing. The all important signs of reversal, up or down, have not been observed so we are mostly, at best, neutral and conservatively holding. The 50DMA, MACD, volume and a host of other studies have not turned, only a 6% correction (and recovery) and that is not enough for me to start shorting. I would advise caution in taking any position during this volatile transition period although Barchart.com shows a 24 % sell.
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The DOW at 4:00 is at 16368 up 91 or 0.56%.
The SP500 is at 1866 up 8 or 0.44%.
SPY is at 186.34 up 0.88 or 0.47%.
The $RUT is at 1178 down 0.16 or -0.01%.
NASDAQ is at 4234 up 8 or 0.19%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3630 up 12 or 0.34%.
$VIX ‘Fear Index’ is at 14.04 down 1.04 or -6.89%. Bullish Movement
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is positive, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is sideways.
WTI oil is trading between 100.21 and 98.82 today. The session bias is mixed and is currently trading down at 99.17. (Earlier it dropped from100.21 to 98.82 and turned around and climbed back up to 100.21, then it took another dive around 12:30 melting downwards to where it closed.)
Brent Crude is trading between 107.44 and 106.45 today. The session bias is also mixed and very volatile and is currently trading down at 106.85.
Gold rose from 1306.70 earlier to 1316.47 and is currently trading down at 1312.10. The current intra-session trend is sideways.
Dr. Copper is at 2.997 rising from 2.940 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 79.90 and 80.41 and is currently trading up at 80.10, the bias is currently depressed, but now trading sideways.
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Written by Gary