Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 11-14-2013
Premarket numbers were +0.20% early this morning and easing down 0.05% on news that initial jobs claims missed expectations for the 6th week in a row (339K reported, 341K last report). Investors are eagerly awaiting confirmation of yesterdays rise well into the upper resistance with new historical highs – will this bull run continue?
Markets opened mixed with the NASDAQ gaping down, the SP500 inching up and the DOW not sure what to do. Volume was light to moderate and not exactly what would be a solid confirmation to yesterday’s rise. By the 15 minute mark investor sentiment toured sour as the averages dropped into the red and remained in the flat by 10 am.
Markets are obviously confused this morning and I expect that to continue as Yellen is not going to say anything that might make her confirmation more difficult.
The short term indicators are still leaning, moderately heavy actually,, towards the sell side at the opening, but I would HIGHLY advise caution in taking a position because of the Fed’s reluctance to give any hints of when the taper will begin. I would also take chart and other technical indicators with a grain of salt for the time being and watch what the Fed does.
Yesterday gave a glimpse into QEeen Yellen’s thoughts which could certainly be viewed as bullish to Wall Street. The dovish remarks from the soon-to-be Chair of the Federal Reserve apparently is what gave the markets a big boost on yesterday session with the averages rebounding strongly well into the close.
Yellen leans dovish in prepared remarks. “We have made good progress, but we have farther to go to regain the ground lost in the crisis and the recession,” Janet Yellen will tell the Senate Banking Committee in her confirmation hearing today.
In what looks like a bid to support the continuation of accommodative policies, Yellen will also emphasize that the “labor market and economy [are] performing far short of their potential,” while inflation remains below the Fed’s target.
Mark Chlander, wrote, “Yellen’s prepared remarks were short and seemed to be largely an explanation of the current stance of monetary policy. That she stuck to the so-called party line is hardly news worthy.”
The longer 6 month outlook remains 40-60 sell until we can see what the Fed is going to do, simple as that. If we get Fed tapering in December the markets will certainly react in a negative fashion. If the tapering begins in March 2014, like many believe it will, the markets are going to price that in by declining sooner. I am expecting weak to negative markets for the foreseeable future. Also, many pundits have stated that we may have seen the top – but I wouldn’t count it as long as the Fed continues to hand out ‘Market Viagra’! I would like to see a blowout candle to verify a top along with heavy volume.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15824 up 3 or 0.01%.
The SP500 is at 1783 up 1 or 0.05%.
SPY is at 178.52 up 0.13 or 0.07%.
The $RUT is at 1107 down 5 or -0.44%.
NASDAQ is at 3956 down 8 or -0.21%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3401 down 5 or -0.14%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 5 sessions have been sideways and the current bias is positive.
WTI oil is trading between 94.03 and 92.97 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 93.07.
Brent Crude is trading between 106.96 and 108.22 today. The session bias is positive and is currently trading up at 108.11.
Gold rose from 1277.99 earlier to 1287.95 and is currently trading down at 1284.40.
Dr. Copper is at 3.147 falling from 3.182 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 81.27 and 81.04 and is currently trading up at 81.11, the bias is currently negative.
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Written by Gary