Written by Gary
Opening Market Commentary For 09-24-2013
Premarkets were up (+0.25%) after the House Price Index improved +0.01% to 1.0% but the S&P Case-Shiller came in with a not-so-good report just after 9 am and started to slide.
Markets opened flat and quickly started to fluctuate up and down on moderate volume. By the 15 minute mark the averages were solidly melting downward clearly dissatisfied with financial morning news and still digesting the surprise decision by the Fed last week not to begin scaling back stimulus.
The Consumer Confidence report came in at (97.7 down 0.1) and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was down to zero from last report of 14, while analysts were expecting 12. This was enough to send the markets further down at 0.40%.
Today might actually be a good trading day if you can guess what comes next, the problem is that the trading range after 10 am is going to remain narrow for most of the indices. Profitability of any trades will be thin unless you hold overnight, which in itself is a dangerous proposition.
I also have issues with some pundits, writing continually, that there are good setups for day trading which has only been true for swing trading, but the Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Confirm “Tradeable”. However there is a wedge between perception and reality that has been going on for some time now where the reality doesn’t match the continued bull run. Maybe we have seen the top – but I wouldn’t count it as long as Dr. Ben continues to hand out ‘Free Ice Cream”!
The problem facing traders is that the trading range, which has been so narrow lately, that way too much money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable over the past year. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 10:15 is at 15374 down 27 or -0.17%.
The SP500 is at 1697 down 4 or -0.26%.
SPY is at 169.48 down 0.46 or -0.27%.
The $RUT is at 1068 down 4 or -0.41%.
NASDAQ is at 3759 down 6 or -0.15%.
NASDAQ 100 is at 3216 down 4 or -0.11%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish, the past 3 sessions have been down and the current bias is down.
WTI oil is trading between 103.64 and 102.30 today. The session bias is bearish and is currently trading down at 102.41.
Brent Crude is trading between 108.32 and 107.50 today. The session bias is negative and is currently trading down at 107.58.
Gold fell from 1329.34 earlier to 1306.14 and is currently trading up at 1313.50.
Dr. Copper is at 3.243 fell from 3.295 earlier.
The US dollar is trading between 80.74 and 80.52 and is currently trading up at 80.67, the bias is currently positive.
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Written by Gary