Opening Market Commentary For 02-18-2013
Gary is off today and will return tomorrow morning.
After starting the day in negative territory, Europe’s main indexes were mixed around midday as investors cautiously contemplated a further fall in value for the Japanese yen _ which sent the benchmark Nikkei index surging more than 2 percent.
Analysts predicted a subdued start to Europe’s trading week with voters in Italy and Cyprus to cast ballots next weekend and Wall Street’s closure for Presidents Day. Traders also had to digest news from the weekend meeting of Group of 20 finance ministers, which avoided upbraiding the government of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for introducing measures that would have the knock-on effect of driving down the yen in a bid to help manufacturers. After starting the day in negative territory.
Europe’s main indexes were mixed around midday. Britain’s FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent to 6,318.65. Germany’s DAX climbed 0.2 percent at 7,605. France’s CAC-40 lost 0.2 percent to 3,653.
2012 Q4 GDP has been weak in G3 and indeed Europe more broadly, (however it has generally surprised to the upside in Asia), consequently, the momentum of business sentiment will be key to watch.
The Euro area flash PMI, German Ifo and the Philadelphia Fed survey are released this week (the China flash PMI will be released on Feb 25). The consensus expects a further small rise in the Euro area services and manufacturing readings.
The week also brings a batch of central bank commentary, where the focus will be on references to currency strength; these include the RBA minutes followed by testimony, a speech by RBNZ governor Wheeler, Bank of Thailand policy decision and Bank of England minutes.
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the last meeting and they may contain important clues on the bias of the Committee with respect to how long it expects the current QE program to last.
Additionally, the Committee may have discussed the potential merits of outcome-based guidance for balance sheet policy, which may be reflected in the minutes.
WTI oil is trading between 95.46 and 96.00 this morning. The session bias is up and is currently trading down at 95.74.
Gold fell from 1618.15 earlier to 1608.86 and is currently trading down at 1610.45.
Dr. Copper is at 3.69 faloing from 3.74 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 80.52 earlier to 80.82 and is currently trading up at 80.75.
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Written by Gary