Midday Market Commentary For 01-16-2013
Heading into the midday part of today’s session it is beginning to look just like yesterday’s lackluster session. The SP500 has melted up this morning, on low volume, with in a half point of matching yesterdays highs. It remains to be seen if it will rise further in the afternoon. It was at this point yesterday were the averages faltered with a small bear trap only to rise later in the session.
The Markets today remain mixed and flat, but mostly in the green as the HFT computers slowly melt the averages upward.
I know that ‘reasonable’ expectations from Mr. Market are not the norm in today’s lexicon, but if I were to do some prognostications I would say the markets would turn down and try for the gold ring later in the week.
The resistance at this point for the majority of the averages is quite high and may not be penetrable until later in the year, if at all. The call for a market correction around this time next week is very possible and likely.
The big question is how much of a correction are going to see? My best ha ha (prediction) is that we should see something in the neighborhood of 5.5%.
The RRR** has been narrow at the opening bell for the past several months and continued the trend into the midday session. This continuing trend makes predictions of session movements nearly impossible making trading futile and unprofitable.
As long as market volume remains light or the trading range is narrow, one can expect successful trading to remain elusive. The RRR** has been wider on volatile sessions lately and is expected to become more so as 2013 begins, but a lot of guessing remains. Correctly ‘guessing’, of course, is the tricky part of the successful trading equation. Any trades today will probably end up on the meager side of profitability if you are lucky as most trades have been less than optimal during the past several years.
I also have continuing issues with some pundits, writing almost every day, that there are setups for day trading. Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Unchanged at 79% and Secondaries Confirm “Tradable” This may be true enough, but the trading range is so narrow that way too money has to be put on the table just to get back meager gains. Do not fall into the trap of money burning a hole in your pocket, sit tight better days are coming. I keep hoping for increasing volumes to signal improved trading.
Swing trading is also at your own risk for all the reasons mentioned above although guessing overnight trades would have been most profitable. Again, guessing where the market is going to be tomorrow or next week, at this time anyway, can be a foolish and costly endeavor.
The DOW at 12:00 is at 13510 down 24 or -0.18%.
The SP500 is at 1469 down 3 or -0.17%.
SPY is at 147.087 up 0.02 or 0.01%.
The $RUT is at 881.89 down 2.71 or -0.31%.
NASDAQ is at 3117 up 7 or 0.23%.
The longer trend is up, the past months trend is bullish and the current bias is up.
WTI oil was trading in a very narrow 50 cent range this morning and is currently trading up at 94.24 trading between 93.10 and 94.40 and the bias is positive.
Brent crude was generally down in light trading earlier and is currently trading up at 110.52 trading between 110.28 and 110.78 and the bias is neutral.
Gold was down this morning. Currently trading up at 1680.65, trading range is between 1664.00 and 1684.00 with a positive bias.
Dr. Copper is at 3.61 down from 3.68 earlier.
The US dollar rose from 79.66 earlier to 79.94 and is currently trading down at 79.80.
** RRR = Risk Reward Ratio
To contact me with questions, comments or constructive criticism is always encouraged and appreciated:
Written by Gary