Live Market Commentary For 05-23-2012

After Market Closing Commentary:

The markets climbed out of their early morning doldrums to eek out a profit for the day in spite very heavy profit taking during the last few minutes of trading. The rise is being contributed to a rumor that said Angela Merkel, PM of Germany, has made a verbal bank deposit guarantee for the entire Eurozone. I personally find that difficult to swallow as it would mean a loss at the next election and the German high court (Bundesverfassungsgericht, or BverfG) would overturn any such extravagances anyway. My feeling is that DaBoyz had something to do starting this bit of fanciful thinking.

The DOW is at 12496 down 6.66 or -0.05%, the 500 is at 1318 up 2.23 or 0.17%, the $RUT is at 765 up 5.54 or 0.73% and SPY is at 132.17 down 0.02 or -0.02%. The near trend is down and the current bias is flat. Gold is up this afternoon to 1560 with a positive bias. WTI oil is at 90.46 being as low as 89.10 this afternoon. Brent crude is in the low 106 at the day’s end.

@SA

“Stocks snapped back sharply from lows after France’s Hollande and Italy’s Monti voiced support for euro bonds and the Fed’s Kocherlakota said a fall off the fiscal cliff would argue for new QE. But the move could just as easily be explained by short covering after a period of weakness. NYSE gainers beat losers seven to six.”

The real story is in the charts once again.

The 500 at the close.

The $RUT at the close. Bottom violet line is the 200 day MA. Also take notice that the blue 50 day MA is overtaking the red line 100 day MA. That would be a black cross and not a good omen.

The DOW at the close.

The Indexes at the close. A flat market with room to go either way.

Noon Market Commentary:

Markets have melted down to the supports developed 3 sessions ago and are holding, probably for the rest of the day. Volume is red but at very low numbers.

The DOW is at 12335 down 167 or -1.34%, the 500 is at 1299 down 17.09 or -1.30%, the $RUT is at 749.53 down 10.12 or -1.33% and SPY is at 130.27 down 1.94 or -1.43%. The trend is down and the current bias is down.

Gold is down to 1536 with a negative bias. WTI oil has fallen to 90.36 and Brent crude is currently trading in the 105 area. Dr. Copper has fallen to 3.39, not a good sign.

Opening Market Comments:

Markets opened down, but well within the range I call flat. Red volume was moderate at the opening and has since fallen to abysmal. By 10 am we saw the market generally rise then fall and then rise again but on ‘moderate’ volume mostly red. DaBoyz are making the most of this trading day as most wait for more news of the ‘Greek Exit’ in progress.

The DOW is at 12435 down 68.42 or -0.59%, the 500 is at 1309 down 6.80 or -0.52%, the $RUT is at 755 down 3.84 or -0.48% and SPY is at 131.48 down 0.77 or -0.63%. The trend is down and the current bias is down.

Gold is down to 1556 with a negative bias. WTI oil is at 91.21, Brent crude is currently trading in the 107 area.

@SA

CBO warns about “fiscal cliff.” The CBO has predicted that the U.S. economy would enter another recession in H1 2013 if planned tax increases and spending cuts are allowed to go into effect in January. The CBO projects the economy would contract 1.3% in H1, but if the spending cuts and tax increases don’t come into force, the economy would add 2M jobs in 2013 and U.S. GDP would grow 4.4%. Opinion: The importance of the looming fiscal cliff.

Premarket Comments:

SP500 futures are down to 1305, nothing like what we have seen and the markets could actually rise today in spite of the dreadful news coming from the MM. The DOW is down 79.00, the NASDAQ is down 14.75, gold is down to 1560 with a positive bias. WTI oil is at 91.20 being as low as 90.70 this morning. Brent crude was in the high 106’s and is currently trading in the 107.33 area.

Dr. Copper is to be watched as it continually shows weakness. It was at 3.42 earlier and has moved up 0.01 to 3.43.

@SA

Italian May consumer confidence falls to 86.5 from 88.8 previously, and against expectations for a rise to 90. It’s the worst print since 1996. A gauge of unemployment expectations rises to 113 from 106. Milan -3%.

Needham wades into the carnage that has been Facebook’s (FB) IPO and initiates coverage with a buy rating and a price target of $40 a share vs. yesterday’s close of $31. “With over 900M monthly users, we believe Facebook is an option on the World” is the cheese-filled explanation. Facebook is enjoying a bit of a bounce premarket and is +2%.

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Written by Gary