Forex Alerts: Five Key Currency Pairs 28 April 2013

Weekly Forex Recap Of Major Pairs Covered

by Mike Ber, Forex Alerts

USD/JPY – Weekly close @ 98.02

Bias: Bullish-Neutral

USD/JPY – Daily chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 98.944

Range: 97.404 – 98.944

Downside: 95.408

Commentary:

USD/JPY is trading within the 97.404 – 98.944 range.

Our bias is Bullish-Neutral. The pair has very strong daily and weekly charts, but future outlook remains unclear, due to important upside barrier.

We wrote last week that: that we see one of two scenarios unfolding for USD/JPY. “There are many sellers at 100, but if the magic number is broken the pair will probably extend its run to 102-103, 107, and beyond. We favor the second scenario with USD/JPY unable to break this barrier. We see the possibility for a significant retracement to 95 and possibly 90 next. The recent inability for the pair to break through 100, led to a drop to 95.90 level. This time we may see a more serious reaction if the mood changes. During the next week general markets may determine the fate of the pair. The yen is typically seen as a safe-haven currency, and tends to benefit at times of market instability.”

The pair is starting to pullback last week. It bounced off the support level we had on the charts, the low on Friday was 97.55. It will probably bounce a little bit more before attempting to break resistance @ 97.40. We think that the USD/JPY may continue to go down, and if we are right, we will be entering a long position @95.40 or around this area. It will be probably a scary moment to buy when USD/JPY will be @95, because this will be the time when most of the traders will be frustrated of the pair’s inability to break 100. Vast majority will think that the pair won’t be able to break 100 in the near future.

Our USD/JPY trades in April:

April 1st, 2013 – Entered long @92.65.

April 3rd, 2013 – Took some profits – 50% @94.22 (Twitter update) PL: +157 pips profit

April 4th, 2013 – Closed position @96.212 – 50% (Twitter update) PL: +347 pips profit

April 14th, 2013 – Entered long @97.71 (Twitter update)

April 15th, 2013 – Added to long position @96.67 (level from the daily report) (average price 97.19)

April 19th, 2013 – Closed long position @99.32 (level from the daily report) PL: +213 pips profit

No Positions

EUR/USD – Weekly close @ 1.3028

Bias: Bearish

EUR/USD – Daily chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.3106

Range: 1.28655-1.3106

Downside: 1.28655

Commentary:

EUR/USD is trading within a tight 1.28655 – 1.3106 range. We changed out outlook last week from Neutral to Bearish-Neutral.

For now it looks like EUR/USD is rolling over, and we target 1.28655 with our short position.

Our trades EUR/USD in April:

April 4th, 2013 – Opened small short @ 1.28983

April 5th, 2013 – Added to existing short @ 1.3034

April 10th, 2013 – Added to existing short position @ 1.3118

April 15th, 2013 – Closed all the positions @ 1.3072 (updated via Twitter) P/L: -30 pips loss

April 25th, 2013 – Entered short position @ 1.3049 (targeting 1.28655)

USD/CAD – Weekly close @ 1.0163

Bias: Neutral

USD/CAD – Daily chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.02323

Range: 1.0135 – 1.02323

Downside: 1.00495

Commentary:

USD/CAD is trading within the 1.0135 – 1.02323.

Our bias is still Neutral.

We mentioned to our members on Thursday that USD/CAD looks more and more bearish. We wanted to get into a short position if the pair climbs up to 1.02391 area of resistance. This scenario didn’t play out, and we couldn’t get a good entry. There is a very strong support @ 1.00495.

We continue to monitor this pair for good entry points. At this point there is no edge either way.

Our USD/CAD trades in April:

April 1st, 2013 – Entered Long @1.0137.

April 5th, 2013 – Took some profits @ 1.0195 (50%), targeting 1.02688 with the rest (Twitter update) PL: +58 pips profit

April 11th, 2013 – Stopped out @ 1.0105 PL: -32 pips loss

No positions

GBP/USD – Weekly close @ 1.5471

Bias: Bearish-Neutral

GBP/USD – Daily chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 1.55956

Range: 1.50828 – 1.55956

Downside: 1.49464

Commentary:

No change in bias or outlook. The bias is still Bearish – Neutral.

The pair is trading within the 1.50828 – 1.55956 range. This range is wide because the recent upside move took out few resistance levels.

The pair may continue upside movement to 1.5595 level; if the short trade is crowded, there might be a squeeze to this level. We are not over leveraged, and even though we hold a losing position at the moment we prefer the pair to climb to 1.5595 area of resistance, where we will add 2/3 to our short position that we took off previously. Our view didn’t change, the charts are still bearish.

We believe that this is one of the cases where big explosive move doesn’t change the overall outlook. The development provides a better entry point.

Our GBP/USD trades in April:

April 1st, 2013 – Entered Short @ 1.5250

April 3rd, 2013 – Took profits @ 1.5075, (75%) still staying short with a small position, target 1.49089. PL: +175 pips profit

April 5th, 2013 – Added to short @ 1.5350 (average 1.53)

April 17th, 2013 – Closed 2/3 of our position @ 1.52481 (mentioned this level in the report, no Twitter update required) PL: +52 pips profit

We still hold 1/3 of the short position

EUR/JPY – Weekly close @ 127.95

Bias: Neutral

EUR/JPY – Daily chart

Levels to watch at the beginning of the week:

Upside: 130.90

Range: 126.955 – 130.90

Downside: 125.015

Commentary:

EUR/JPY is trading within the wide 126.955 – 130.90 range.

Our bias is Neutral. We are waiting on the sidelines until the next trend develops.

We wrote previously that EUR/JPY is waiting for the resolution on USD/JPY’s ability to challenge the barrier of 100. Our view didn’t change. At this point support @ 125.015 provides a good buying opportunity.

Our EUR/JPY trades in April:

April 15th, 2013 – Entered long @ 127.17 (level on the charts, no Twitter update required)

April 15th, 2013 – Added to long @ 125.63 (level on the charts, no Twitter update required) (average 126.40)

April 17th, 2013 – Closed all positions @ 127.15 (update via Twitter) PL: +75 pips profit

This is a special weekend report from ForexAlerts.ca recapping the major pairs they cover, how they traded them this past week, and what they look forward next week. They recently launched their service and are offering a 50% discount for a limited time. To learn more about currencies and take advantage of this offer click here.