by Nick Simpson, Forex-FX-4X
Australian/US dollar technical overview/price action analysis – The AUD/USD continues to find resistance around the 61.8% retrace of the last swing to the downside, from 1.0624 – 1.0146. Aussie dollar bulls have not yet managed to see this pair print a daily close above the key technical level. Wednesday (14 November 2012), had a test of this 1.0450 area resistance, with price breaching recent highs, but subsequently dropping to the downside and closing the day as a bearish engulfing candle.
The daily low from yesterday closed around the convergence of the ascending trend line and 100 period SMA. The downside momentum has carried into today and subsequently seen price take out Wednesdays low, on a breakout of support, and continue the downside trajectory under the trend line.
Near Term Technical Levels for the AUD/USD
- Price is currently finding the 38.2% retrace of 1.0148 – 1.0479 supportive, around the 1.0350 mark, during the early European trading session.
- Further to this to the downside, the 1.0325 area marks the current 200 period SMA level and a price pivot zone, as shown on the attached daily timeframe AUD/USD chart (figure 1).
- Potential resistance may be seen around the following areas. The trend line line breakout area around 1.0370 in the first instance, followed by Monday and Tuesday’s lows at 1.0384 – 94 respectively.
- Key potential resistance remains around the 1.0440 – 60 zone. . We also note that his area has also previously seen a pin bar at the 61.8% level which is still in play with no breach of the pin bar high at 1.0479.
- A look at the bigger picture (figure 2) shows this currency pair is essentially trading in the middle of a near 500 pip range, from 1.0624 – 1.0146.
AUD/USD Daily Chart (figure 1)
AUD/USD Daily Chart (figure 2)
Editor’s note: This article was written Thursday 15 November 2012.
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