by John Lounsbury
Yesterday I reviewed recent market declines and reported that 25 of 30 global indexes followed by Econintersect had fallen by 20% or more and had “officially” entered bear market territory. After trading on October 12 three of these bear markets are over. Brazil, Frankfurt and Geneva have all had gains of more than 20% from their recent bear lows. All three are “officially” bull markets once again. In addition, seven markets have bounced between 2.9% and 9.6% from recent lows. And twenty markets have seen gains of at least 10% but less than 20%, so they are in a bear market correction, or, as we optimists like to call it, secondary bull markets.It took 23 of the 25 bears 133 days or more from top to bottom and it took 16 more than 200 days. All 23 primary and secondary bull moves have occurred in 68 days or less and more than half have happened in 8 days or less.
The bears will tell you that bear markets have violent rallies. The bulls will tell you that strong bulls charge out of the gate. A cautionary note for the bulls comes from the very low volumes in the U.S. markets during this rally. It is possible that the move is being driven by short-covering more than by long buying pressure.
Global Bear Market Update by John Lounsbury
Market Red Ink Update 9/6/11 by John Lounsbury
Ranking a World of Red Ink by John Lounsbury