Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

Asia in 2013

admin by admin
December 18, 2012
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
1
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

by John West, Asian Century Institute

Asia will muddle through in 2013, benefiting little from the revival of the US economy. But as in 2012, there will no doubt be some surprises.

In China, government stimulus will keep the economy afloat. The new government’s focus will be on restoring internal stability and the image of the Communist Party, after the 2012 turbulence caused by the Bo Xilai and other scandals. There will be no attempt to tackle difficult reforms of state-owned enterprises and banks, despite the urgent need for rebalancing. Unless the new administration starts reform at some point, China will be stuck with a very low rate of productivity.

As US private sector deleveraging progresses further, and a solution is found to the fiscal cliff and government debt, the US will gradually move into a higher growth phase. But we will not see a return to the decade leading up to the 2008 Lehman shock, when China and other Asian countries benefited greatly from the US’s debt-driven growth.

There will be new drivers of US growth. The renaissance of the domestic energy sector. “Insourcing” of some production previously outsourced to emerging Asia. Foreign investment, especially from China. An easing of limitations on skilled migration. The nascent third industrial revolution thanks to 3D printing.

We may even see the commercialization of innovations coming out of the US military’s very active past decade. Don’t forget that the world-changing Internet came out of the US military.

Some of these factors represent a switch in the growth dynamic from Asia to the US. But the re-emerging US dynamo will still underperform relative to potential due to the political inability to invest sufficiently in infrastructure, education, health and science. The International Telecommunications Union ranks the US only 15th in the world on its information and communications technology index, below some five Asian economies. The most shocking evidence of the deeply fractured US society is the declining life expectancy of the bottom 30% of the country.

Osama Bin Laden has inflicted a huge wound on the US economy and society through debt-financed wars, a bloated US military and the vast internal security apparatus.

We may also see President Obama’s controversial “Asia-pivot” transformed into the elements of a partnership with China. The second-term president will be in search of a foreign policy legacy, and the Middle East will not provide that. Further, it is not in Chinese President Xi’s interest to be constantly at war with China’s neighbors. Obama and Xi look like two guys who can work together, if only Xi can control the People’s Liberation Army.

China is now desperately alone, as Burma has shifted West, and China can’t even control North Korea. The recent anti-Japan demonstrations will begin to cost China dearly, as Japanese companies look to India and Burma as new production locations, especially since China is losing its low-cost advantage.

The election of Prime Minister Abe in Japan will provide the opportunity for a fresh economic and political start. But although he is making good noises on deflation, Abe will not bite the bullet on more important initiatives like the Trans Pacific Partnership which are necessary to revitalize Japan’s economy.

Continued weak leadership, and an inability to address Japan’s fundamental problems, will feed political instability in this country which has the habit of changing prime ministers annually. We can only hope that Abe can restrain his right-wing, nationalistic impulses and those of politicians
like Ishihara and Hashimoto. It will be important to avoid provoking China.

The election of President Park in South Korea means that a new deal with North Korea is possible, even after the recent rocket launch. More South Korean investment and food aid for the North in exchange for restraint on rockets and nuclear buildup would be a very positive development.

South Korea will continue to impress the world with its enterprises (like Samsung), K-pop (Psy and “Gangnam Style“), Korean wave and lady golfers. But competing in the field of continuous innovation can prove difficult as Japanese enterprises like Sony and Panasonic know well. And intellectual property challenges will always be there, as Korean enterprises are best at adapting the designs and products of others.

Indian economic dynamism is unlikely to be awoken by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s belated and feeble attempts at reform. And Rahul Gandhi’s inability to provide meaningful leadership to the National Congress Party will leave the country without direction. Large enterprises like Tata, an Indian strong point, will continue to find investing overseas more attractive than at home.

The South East Asian countries of Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand will be the bright stars of Asia, although the failing health of the King of Thailand casts a shadow over that country’s internal stability. 2012 could be called the “year of Burma“, with its surprising reforms being crowned by a visit from US president Barack Obama. But Burma will lose some gloss in 2012, as its fundamental weaknesses come into sharper focus.

Could there be a positive surprise awaiting us in 2013?

We have to bear in mind that North Korea is fundamentally changing as more information seeps across the border through DVDs, radio, telephones, USB keys and so on. There is also a growing marketization of the North’s economy, including through trade and investment across its increasingly porous border with China. This exposure to the outside world shows North Korean citizens that something better is possible. Corruption is also undermining authoritarian control.

We don’t know when, but one day there will be a surprise development in North Korea, especially as citizens begin to lose their fear of challenging authority. Already, citizens do much less reporting on each other. The leadership would be wise to open up more to special economic zones, as China some three decades ago.

In this “13th year“, Westerners who suffer from “triskaidekaphobia” will be pessimistic. Asia does not however suffer from any such fear of the number 13. Indeed, it can be a decidely lucky number. When pronounced in Mandarin, it can sound like ‘definitely vibrant’ or ‘assured growth‘.

In Asia, we will also pass from the year of the dragon to the year of the black snake. Despite the snake’s devilish connotations in the West, this 2013 year of Snake appears to be one of steady progress to Asian astrologers.

So Asians with a superstitious bent may well be more optimistic than me. And you never know, they may be right. Asia does have a track record of surprising on the up-side. This is how we arrived in this Asian Century.

Read More by This Author

  • China’s internal weakness and external strength
  • Korea and Japan: a tale of two countries
  • Bribery and corruption in Asia

Previous Post

Markets Make Nice Rise, Will It Stay?

Next Post

A Bubble in Fixed Income?

Related Posts

World Bank Cautions Of 'Lost Decade' In Global Growth Without Drastic Policy Shifts
Business

World Bank Cautions Of ‘Lost Decade’ In Global Growth Without Drastic Policy Shifts

by John Wanguba
March 28, 2023
How Is The Banking Crisis Affecting Ripple’s XRP Crypto?
Economics

How Is The Banking Crisis Affecting Ripple’s XRP Crypto?

by John Wanguba
March 28, 2023
Virgin Orbit Extends Employee Furlough, Funding Talks Ongoing – CEO
Business

Virgin Orbit Extends Employee Furlough, Funding Talks Ongoing – CEO

by John Wanguba
March 28, 2023
Lebron James And Several Other Celebs ‘Effectively Wiped Out’ As Fitness App Tonal Loses 90% Value
Business

Lebron James And Several Other Celebs ‘Effectively Wiped Out’ As Fitness App Tonal Loses 90% Value

by John Wanguba
March 28, 2023
Petrobras Ready To Remain As The Last Oil Producer Standing
Business

Petrobras Ready To Remain As The Last Oil Producer Standing

by John Wanguba
March 28, 2023
Next Post

A Bubble in Fixed Income?

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market Bitcoin mining blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse mining NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • World Bank Cautions Of ‘Lost Decade’ In Global Growth Without Drastic Policy Shifts
  • How Is The Banking Crisis Affecting Ripple’s XRP Crypto?
  • Virgin Orbit Extends Employee Furlough, Funding Talks Ongoing – CEO

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish