Early Headlines: Greece Austerity Toughest, Greece is Now Ward of EU, Iran Deal Today?, New Global Oil Glut? and More

Early Bird Headlines 13 July 2015

Econintersect: Here are some of the headlines we found to help you start your day. For more headlines see our afternoon feature for GEI members, What We Read Today, which has many more headlines and a number of article discussions to keep you abreast of what we have found interesting.

Global

• Global inflation pressures still mild, China still the worry (Reuters) Global inflation appears tamer than many had thought it would be by now, still held back by a modest outlook for economic growth, meaning central banks look likely to leave rates lower for longer — or even ease policy further. With a few exceptions such as Brazil, many major economies are still generating low or no consumer price inflation but instead higher asset prices, particularly stocks, and in many countries, a renewed pickup in house price inflation. For those watching the world economy, China, not Greece, has for a while remained the number one concern.
• World Markets Weekend Update: A Volatile Mixed Bag (Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives dshort.com) Doug Short is a regular contributor to GEI. The following tables show the weekly returns each of the last four weeks for the eight markets Doug tracks.

U.S.

• In Texas, a French Killer Is Hired to Do Job Americans Couldn’t (Bloomberg) Texas hasn’t been able to control a runaway invasive weed from Europe, carrizo cane, which creates hiding places along the Mexican border. Now they intend to import another alien species, armies of French carrizo-eating wasps along the Rio Grande. Another non-native species introduced to control an established non-native species? What could possibly go wrong with that?
  

EU

• How Much Austerity Has Europe Actually Endured? (Bloomberg) If Ireland, Portugal, Spain, and Italy had to swallow the bitter pill of austerity, the argument goes, so should Greece. But are the situations similar? When it comes to GDP impact none are close to Greece (first graph below). Only with unemployment, and then only for Spain, has there been comparable pain.

Greece

• Euro zone leaders: Greece must do more to earn rescue (Reuters) The reference in the following to the document from the finance ministers being illegal refers to a rule for the Eurozone that no action can be undertaken without unanimous approval of the finance ministers.

Euro zone leaders told near-bankrupt Greece at an emergency summit on Sunday it must enact key reforms this week to restore trust before they will open talks on a financial rescue to keep it in the European currency area.

Leftist Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will be required to push legislation through parliament to convince his 18 partners in the euro zone to release immediate funds to avert a state bankruptcy and start negotiations on a third bailout program estimated at up to 86 billion euros ($95.5 billion).

Six sweeping measures including tax and pension reforms must be enacted by Wednesday night and the entire package endorsed by parliament before talks can start, a draft decision by Eurogroup finance ministers sent to the leaders showed.

The document included a German proposal to make Greece take a “time-out” from the euro zone if it fails to meet the conditions. But not all ministers endorsed the idea, which a senior EU source said was illegal and would not survive in the summit statement.

• Tsipras was given ‘mental waterboarding” over reform plans (Francis Coppola, Twitter)

This is civilised behaviour, is it? http://t.co/pnTrTTcTXR pic.twitter.com/vwDWrQmm9J

— Frances Coppola (@Frances_Coppola) July 12, 2015

Iran

• Iran deal would add to oil glut, open door to cement, steel imports (Reuters) Any nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers loosening sanctions against Tehran could flood an oversupplied oil market with more fuel, yet sectors like cement and steel would see a rise in demand as the country works to revitalize its economy. Officials involved in ongoing negotiations said on Sunday they were close to a deal that would bring sanctions relief in exchange for curbs to Tehran’s atomic program, although no agreement was expected before Monday.

China

• Police Investigators Uncover Evidence of Market Manipulation (China Topix) Chinese police investigators have found evidence that certain firms may have deliberately engaged in illegal short-selling of stocks and stock indexes, State News Agency Xinhua reported.

South Korea

• S. Korea’s exports to Europe may fall 5.8 pct on ‘Grexit’ (Yonhap News Agency) Grexit will not be severe a blow to South Korea as was the Eurozone crisis in 2010. But it will have a significant impact according the Korea International Trade Association (KITA):

“If the Grexit happens, the eurozone’s economy growth will fall 1 percentage point and the South Korean won will add 13.6 percent against the euro. This will lead to a 5.8 percent drop in exports. By segment, ships, automobiles, displays and mobile devices, will be major losers if the Grexit happens.”

Philippines

• 2015 growth seen bearing mark of spending, global woes (Business World) IMF Resident Representative Shanaka Jayanath Peiris told reporters in an e-mail that Philippine economic growth could come in at 6.2% this year, lower than the 6.7% estimate estimated in April. The government has set a 7-8% growth target for this year and next. Slowing global economic activity is cited as the primary factor involved.
  

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