Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 290,000 to 300,000 (consensus 295,000) vs the 297,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 294,250 (reported last week as 294,000) to 299,000. Rolling averages under 300,000 are excellent.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 7.7% lower (worse than the 11.7% reported last week) than they were in this same week in 2013 (see chart below).
2014 claim levels are near 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 297,000, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 313,000 to 314,000. The 4-week moving average was 299,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 294,000 to 294,250. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending November 22, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 1.7 to 1.8 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 22 was 2,362,000, an increase of 39,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 7,000 from 2,316,000 to 2,323,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,355,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,750 from 2,352,000 to 2,353,750.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line)