econintersect.com
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자
No Result
View All Result
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자
No Result
View All Result
econintersect.com
No Result
View All Result

June 2014 Coincident Indicator Review: The Economy’s Rate of Growth Remains Nearly Flat

admin by admin
7월 23, 2014
in 미분류
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS

The above graph shows the rate of year-over-year growth for the US Coincident Index. A comparison of US Coincident Index, Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board’s Coincident Index, ECRI’s USCI (U.S. Coincident Index), and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) coincident indicators follows.

Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool.  Econintersect‘s analysis of the coincident indices is that:

  • There is general agreement that the economy is expanding – all show the rate of growth is nearly flat (not increasing or decreasing to any significant degree) – and the growth is remaining fairly stable.
  • You cannot take most of these coincident indices to the bank – as they are subject to backward revision.
  • The economy is expanding at main street level – but the growth rate remains slow.

Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for June 2014. In the past month, the indexes increased in 42 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in five, for a one-month diffusion index of 78. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 45 states, decreased in three, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of 84. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed’s U.S. index rose 0.3 percent in June and 0.9 percent over the past three months.

[click graph below to enlarge]

 

/images/z philly coincident.PNG

1 month change3 month change1 year change
Philly Fed Coincident0.3%0.9%3.2%

The Philly Fed produces this real time coincident indictor report based on six underlying indicators:

  • Weekly initial jobless claims
  • Monthly payroll employment
  • Industrial production
  • Personal income less transfer payments
  • Manufacturing and trade sales
  • Quarterly real GDP

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

However, the vertical lines on the chart above indicate the amount of indicators used to develop this forecast.

  • For dates to the left of the left line, the ADS index is based on observed data for all six underlying indicators.
  • For dates between the left and right lines, the ADS index is based on at least two monthly indicators (typically employment and industrial production) and initial jobless claims.
  • For dates to the right of the right line, the ADS index is based on initial jobless claims and possibly one monthly indicator.

This means the accuracy of this index is reduced in real time. Per the Philly Fed:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index’s underlying components are released.

The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. The ADS index may be used to compare business conditions at different times. A value of -3.0, for example, would indicate business conditions significantly worse than at any time in either the 1990-91 or the 2001 recession, during which the ADS index never dropped below -2.0.

 

Conference Board’s Coincident Index – hyperlink takes you to Econintersect‘s analysis (red line):

 

/images/z conference.png

ECRI’s USCI (U.S. Coincident Index)

 

/images/z ecri_coin.png

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – hyperlink takes you to Econintersect‘s analysis

Steven Hansen

Previous Post

Trucking Tonnage Index Declines in June 2014

Next Post

Market Commentary: SP500 Makes new High Again, DOW Remains In The Red

Related Posts

Bitcoin Is Finally Trading Perfectly Like 'Digital Gold'
Economics

Bitcoin Is Finally Trading Perfectly Like ‘Digital Gold’

by admin
Namibia Will Regulate And Not Ban Crypto With New Law
Finance

Namibia Will Regulate And Not Ban Crypto With New Law

by admin
6,746 ETH Valued At $12M Was Just Burned
Economics

6,746 ETH Valued At $12M Was Just Burned

by admin
Bitcoin Is Steady Above $29,000 Awaiting US NFP Figures
Economics

Bitcoin: What Next After Consolidation Ends?

by admin
US Government Offloads Another 8,200 Bitcoin – On-chain Data
Economics

US Government Offloads Another 8,200 Bitcoin – On-chain Data

by admin
Next Post

Market Commentary: SP500 Makes new High Again, DOW Remains In The Red

답글 남기기 응답 취소

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin market blockchain BTC BTC price business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

© Copyright 2024 EconIntersect

No Result
View All Result
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자

© Copyright 2024 EconIntersect