ECRI’s WLI Growth Index continues to show growth – remaining in positive territory and at a level again unchanged from the previous week. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. ECRI released their coincident index which declined, and their lagging index which improved.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Growth Unchanged
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined marginally. The growth rate declined to 4.2% from 4.5% (originally released as 4.4%) – and, the level of the index declined marginally from 136.2 (originally released as 136.1) to 135.2.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The July update for June shows the rate of economic growth again declining marginally month-to-month – and is now showing the rate of growth trend line within a narrow channel since 2013. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge at 70-month High
ECRI’s U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG) rose again in June. The value of the USFIG lies in its ability to measure underlying inflationary pressures and thereby predict turning points in the U.S. inflation cycle.
“With the USFIG trending up and hitting a 70-month high in June, underlying inflation pressures have risen further.”
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The June economy’s rate of growth (released in July) improved this month and remains on an upward trendline.
U.S. Lagging Index