Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all show manufacturing expanding in June 2014. A complete summary follows. The market expected this survey index at 5 to 12 (consensus 7) versus the 3 actual [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Fifth District manufacturing activity grew mildly in June, according to the most recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The volume of new orders rose slightly, while shipments softened. Manufacturing employment weakened compared to last month, while average wage growth eased and the average workweek lengthened.
Manufacturers looked for better business conditions in the next six months. Producers anticipated a higher volume of new orders and shipments. Additionally, firms anticipated greater backlogs of new orders and predicted capacity utilization would increase. Expectations were for longer vendor lead times in the six months ahead.
Overall, manufacturing conditions softened slightly. The composite index for manufacturing moved to a reading of 3 following last month’s reading of 7. The index for shipments fell eight points, ending at 2, while the index for new orders gained one point, finishing at a reading of 4. Manufacturing hiring slowed this month. At an index of 3, the June indicator dropped seven points from last month’s reading of 10.
Vendor lead time flattened, moving the index to 1, and the indicator for the backlog of orders decreased to -3 from 1. The capacity utilization gauge climbed ten points this month, ending at 8. Finished goods inventories grew at a slower pace. The index fell ten points, ending at 4. Raw materials inventories built up more quickly. That gauge moved to 14 from 9.
Read entire source document from Richmond Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed Survey (dark green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.