ECRI’s WLI Growth Index continued its improvement cycle, remaining in positive territory but declining to a four week low. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. This week ECRI released their Future Inflation Gauge which is discussed below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion although marginally weaker this week.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index declined marginally. The growth rate again weakened from 5.3% to 4.8% – and the level of the index fell from 135.3 to 134.9.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The April update for March shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month – and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
US Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in May, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 105.2 from the revised March 104.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The April reading was initially reported as 104.7.
“With the USFIG reaching a 13-month high, underlying inflation pressures have begun to build,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released on 23 May) improved this month and now is on an upward trendline.
U.S. Lagging Index