ECRI’s WLI Growth Index continued its improvement cycle, remaining in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI updated their lagging index this past week and is shown below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Unchanged
Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to show expansion.
According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index again improved marginally. The growth rate again strengthened from 4.9% to 5.0% – although the level of the index fell from 136.3 to 135.1.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The April update for March shows the rate of economic growth declining marginally AGAIN month-to-month – and is showing a clear decline in the rate of growth trend line. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips
U.S. inflationary pressures were higher in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 104.7 from the revised March 103.9 reading, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute. The March reading was initially reported as 103.1.
“With the USFIG ticking up to a one-year high, underlying inflation pressures are starting to simmer,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The April economy’s rate of growth (released on 23 May) improved this month and now is on an upward trendline.
U.S. Lagging Index