ECRI’s WLI Growth Index improved moderately and remains in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI also released their inflation gauge this week and is discussed below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Ticks Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its strongest since April 2010, while the annualized growth rate also improved.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index increased to 133.4 in the week ended 03 January.
The index’s annualized growth rate was 2.5 percent, up from 1.9 percent.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The December update for November shows the rate of economic growth improving marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
/images/z ecri_coin.png
ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
/images/z ecri_infl.PNG
US Future Inflation Gauge Rises
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in December, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.7 from the revised November 100.4 reading, originally reported 100.3, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“Despite its recent uptick, the USFIG remains near October’s 22-month low,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release, “Thus, underlying inflation pressures are still subdued.”
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The Novembers economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index
/images/z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
