ECRI’s WLI Growth Index again rose slightly, and continues marginally in positive territory. A positive number predicts positive growth to come within the next six months. ECRI also released their inflation index today which is discussed below.
Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index
Please read The U.S. Business Cycle in the Context of the Yo-Yo Years which is an update on ECRI’s recession call.
Here is this weeks update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (note – a positive number indicates growth):
ECRI WLI Edges Up
A measure of future U.S. economic growth strengthened last week to its highest level in three and a half years, while the annualized growth rate ticked higher, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said that in the week ended Nov. 29 its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.8, its highest since April 2010, from a revised 132.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 132.5.
The index’s annualized growth rate increased to 2.9 percent, its highest since early October, from a revised 2.6 percent a week earlier. The growth rate was originally reported at 2.7 percent.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Coincident index. The November update for October shows the rate of economic growth declined marginally month-to-month – but is still showing reasonable growth. The current values:
U.S. Coincident Index
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ECRI produces a monthly inflation index – a positive number shows decreasing inflation pressure.
U.S. Future Inflation Gauge
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US Future Inflation Gauge Ticks Up
U.S. inflationary pressures were slightly higher in November, as the U.S. future inflation gauge climbed to 100.3 from the revised October 99.7 reading, originally reported 99.5, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.
“With the USFIG staying near October’s 22-month low, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend,” ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
ECRI produces a monthly issued Lagging index. The Octobers economy’s rate of growth continued to degrade.
U.S. Lagging Index
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source: ECRI