Econintersect: China saw a recovery in growth of exports in October to 5.6% year-over-year. This followed a surprise narrow decline (-0.3%) in September. Imports also rose (7.6% gain y-o-y) and the trade surplus was $31 billion, the biggest for any month this year.
Click on picture for larger image at Bloomberg.com
According to Bloomberg export growth is actually understated by about 2% because comparisons are now being made to corresponding months in 2012 when over-invoicing (polite language for “padding the books”) was being practiced. The inflated invoices were used to hide capital flows into China, using fictitious billing to cover money transfers.
The Wall Street Journal quoted Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS:
“Exports recovered strongly in October after the very weak September data. Combined with the better export data in Korea and Taiwan, China’s export numbers suggests some-although not yet decisive-improvement in global demand momentum.”
Sources:
- China Exports Rise More Than Estimated After September Drop (Bloomberg News, 08 November 2013)
- China: Exports Decline (GEI News, 14 October 2013)
- Surprise Jump in China Exports (Richard Silk, The Wall Street Journal, 07 November 2013))