Econintersect: The American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index increased 1.4% in September same as August. It should be noted that there has been little growth in trucking jobs for September 2013 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:
I continue to be pleasantly surprised on the strength of truck tonnage. I attribute a part of tonnage’s robustness to the sectors of the economy that are growing fastest, like housing construction, auto production, and energy output. These industries produce heavier than average freight, which leads to faster growth in tonnage versus a load or shipment measure.
While tonnage is likely running ahead of overall economic growth, perhaps the economy is stronger than many believe. The index has now increased in four of the last five months and the year-over-year growth rate has accelerated. Plus, other measures of truck freight volumes, while increasing at a slower pace than tonnage, have also accelerated in recent months. However, the government shutdown served as a headwind in the fourth quarter.
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 68.5% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9.4 billion tons of freight in 2012. Motor carriers collected $642.1 billion, or 80.7% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
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Compared with September 2012, seasonally adjusted tonnage was up 8.4% (largest year-over-year gain since December 2011). Truck tonnage year-to-date is up 5.4% over 2012.
Econintersect tries to validate data across data sources. It appears this month that jobs growth says the trucking industry increased 0.0% month-over-month (red line) and trucking jobs indexed to Jan 2000 = 100 has has been flat for three months (blue line). Please note using BLS employment data in real time is risky, as their data is normally backward adjusted significantly. However, long term trends are showing a steady growth.
Please note that the ATA does not release an unadjusted data series where Econintersect can make an independent evaluation. Not all trucking companies are members of the ATA, and therefore it is unknown if this data is a representative sampling of the trucking industry.
source: ATA