Written by Hilary Barnes
The French, and in particular France’s politicians, are always on the look out, usually in vain, for signs that the country is about to be engulfed by one of the popular uprisings for which it is famous, and the current unpopularity of President Francois Hollande and his government, economic stagnation and high unemployment are an auspicious moment for such speculation.
Nicolas Baverez, distinguished French historian, political scientist and commentator, writing in the conservative Paris newspaper Le Figaro on 21 October 2013, believes that “all the conditions are present” for one of the “grandes jacqueries” – a violent uprising against the powers that be.
This article is a summary of the thinking of M. Baverez.
Never since the colonial wars of the 1940s and 1950s has the peril been so great. Never in the history of the Fifth Republic, founded by General Charles de Gaulle in 1958 to equip France with institutions to enable France to deal with its moments of crisis, has France been faced with such mistrust of its politicians, with opinion gangrened by denial, lies and systematic incoherence, he writes.
Humiliated by the country’s loss of status, marginalised by Germany’s leadership of Europe, made to look ridiculous by the Syrian crisis over use of poison gas, the French are losing their tempers.
They are indignant at the treason of the state in maintaining the privileges of the public sector and its employees in back to back association with sky-high public expenditure and the nation’s debts, the interminable economic crisis marked by the euthanasia of production, mass unemployment and the pauperising of the people.
The stability of the nation’s institutions and its refusal to to accept extremism are in question, broken by the incapacity of President Hollande to assume the functions of the head of state and the inability of the opposition to present a credible alternative.
He sees the signs of the coming revolt in five different tendencies.
- First the increasing popularity of the Front National, led by Ms Marine LePen, the populist far-right movement noted for its detestation of the Euro single currency system, globalisation, immigration, especially from Africa, and attitudes both autarchic and protectionist.
The National Front is receiving support from disillusioned left-wing supporters who voted for Hollande in last year’s presidential election as well as from conservatives despairing at the conflicts among the leaders of the UMP, the conservative movement that brought Nicholas Sarkozy to office in 2007 and is unable to offering a credible opposition to the present socialist government.
Earlier this month the National Front won a by-election to a regional council in a town in the south of France after knocking out the socialist candidate in the first round and beating the UMP candidate the run-off – which has put the entire world of French politics into a flutter.
As things stand now, the National Front, which has a few seats on various municipal and regional councils but only two in the National Assembly, is expected by many to make a break-through in the municipal elections in March and the European Parliament elections in June next year.
- A second sign of the coming revolt concerns the defects of the system of public security, real or perceived, which are especially noticeable in towns and their surroundings with large immigrant populations and in rural areas where the police presence is very thin (recently farmers in Brittany have complained bitterly about thefts of crops, animals, fuel and machinery by organised gangs).
There is increasing pressure for the organisation of private militias to protect local populations against the criminals in the absence of sufficient and effective police forces.
- Taxation is the next item of Bavarez’s list. Not only have taxes increased enormously over the past year (revenue from income tax and corporate profit tax have both increased by around a quarter so far this year), but taxes have also proliferated, with some 84 new taxes reportedly introduced by the present government.
Bavarez says:
But the sharp increase in taxation is nevertheless not having the desired effect, with revenues this year running well below government expectations even as heavy taxation destroys businesses and jobs.
Business and employer organisations have been considering whether to oppose the government by staging a “tax strike”, though it seems doubtful whether anything will come of this idea.
- Fourthly, Bavarez points to the “demobilisation of the producer” and the suspension of external finance, which has trapped France in economic stagnation.
One result is an unprecedented exodus of young graduates to finds jobs abroad; by the rich, specially singled out for huge increases in taxes on income and wealth, of whom, according to Bavarez, 5,000 have fled France this year so far; and of capital and centres of research and development.
- Finally there is the pressure on certain areas of the country, such as centres of agricultural and agro-industrial activities such as Brittany and Franche Compte, the region where the deeply troubled auto business PSA, the maker of Citroen and Peugeot vehicles, is struggling for survival.
While Bavarez makes an articulate case for fearing a “jacquerie“, he himself puts a finger on one of the reasons why it might not happen.
Under the Fifth Republic, social-political upheavals have in almost all cases been produced by the actions of the public sector work force and/or students.
This was the case with the student revolt of 1968, which de-stabilised President de Gaulle’s final months in office, and the revolt against a programme of reforms of the retirement system and reductions in welfare benefits presented by Prime Minister Alain Juppé (now a possible presidential candidate for the UMP in 2017) in the autumn of 1995, only to be withdrawn after railway workers paralysed the transport system for several weeks.
Since then every government, including this one and President Sarkozy’s, has been extremely wary of provoking another similar reaction.
The private sector does not seem to be so well-placed for effective revolt (although lorry drivers could cause mayhem if they were to join the fray by blocking roads), which is why one should perhaps keep a close eye on how support for the National front develops.
In this case revolt would take hold through the ballot box, but no real effect will emerge, if it ever does, until the next parliamentary and presidential elections in the spring of 2017, which is world’s away in political time.