Econintersect: The JP Morgan / Markit Global All-Industry Output Index expanded for the 50th consecutive month in September and, in the third quarter, the JP Morgan All-Industry PMI hit the highest growth rate since the beginning of 2012. September did see a slowing of monthly rate of growth for some key factors.
The press release accompanying the data highlighted strength in the UK, along with improvement in the Eurozone, Japan, Brazil and Russia. Manufacturing strength in the U.S. was offset by a sharp slowdown in non-manufacturing activity.
Employment was the weakest factor reported. Job creation improved in the U.S., the UK, Japan, Brazil and Ireland. The best that could be said for the Eurozone was that “employment moved closer to stabilizing“.
The report remarked on a pick-up in inflation.
Joe Lupton, Global Economist at JP Morgan, is looking for an expansion in production and employment heading into early next year:
“Despite giving back some of the August gains in September, the global all-industry PMI for 3Q13 points to the strongest pace of growth of global GDP in almost one-and-a-half years. Momentum in the manufacturing built steadily over the quarter as solid gains in final demand through to midyear helped to better align inventories with sales. And while September growth in the service sector came off the strong pace seen in August, the quarterly average shows a modest step up from the second quarter. On balance, the September business surveys round out a quarter in which we see global GDP expanding at a slightly below trend pace and on track to rise to trend in the current quarter. Employment conditions appear to be lagging the lift but this is to be expected as corporates look to raise productivity growth and improve profit margins. Once this adjustment is complete, we look for a more balanced expansion in production and employment heading into early next year.”
- Global growth hits one-and-a-half year high in Q3 (Press release, JP Morgan and Markit, ISM and IFPSM, 03 Ocotber 2013)