Three regional surveys in September show expansion, whilst one shows neither expansion nor contraction.
TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SURVEY MODERATED SOMEWHAT
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the September Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity moderated somewhat but remained positive, and producers’ expectations for future activity increased markedly.
“We saw slightly slower growth this month, but firms were much more optimistic about industry activity in early 2014” said Wilkerson. “Worker shortages remained a problem at many firms.”
The month-over-month composite index was 2 in September, down from 8 in August and 6 in July. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The production index decreased at both durable and non-durable goods-producing plants, with the exception of machinery and computer equipment factories which posted slight gains. Most other month-over-month indexes also fell. The production index plunged from 21 to 4, and the shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes also decreased. The employment index eased after rising last month, and the new orders for exports index fell back into negative territory. The raw materialsinventory index stayed flat at 0, while the finished goods inventory index decreased modestly.
Year-over-year factory indexes were mixed in September. The composite year-over-year index inched lower from 11 to 10, and the new orders, employment, and new orders for exports indexes also fell somewhat. In contrast, the production index rose from 10 to 15, and the shipments and order backlog indexes increased slightly. The capital expenditures index edged up from 15 to 16, matching its highest level in six months. The raw materialsinventory index eased from 9 to 7, while the finished goodsinventory index was unchanged.
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Survey (pea-green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.
