All Federal Reserve districts which have released their July surveys – four are forecasting growth and one is forecasting contraction. A complete summary follows.
Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell from 17.1 to 11.4, suggesting output growth continued but at a slower pace than in June.
Some other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated slower growth in July. The new orders index was positive for the third month in a row, although it edged down from 13 to 10.8. The capacity utilization index also slipped slightly, falling three points to 12.2. However, the shipments index inched up to 17.7, reaching its highest reading in six months.
Perceptions of broader business conditions improved again in July. The general business activity index posted a second consecutive positive reading, although it edged down from 6.5 to 4.4. The company outlook index also remained positive but fell, coming in at 4.5.
Labor market indicators reflected a pickup in labor demand. The employment index rose to 9.3, its highest reading in nearly a year. Eighteen percent of firms reported hiring new workers compared with 9 percent reporting layoffs. Thehours worked index remained in positive territory.
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
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In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.