Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 350,000 vs the 332,000 reported. The more important 4 week moving average is down from 348,750. (reported last week) to 346,750.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is some seasonality which seems to have migrated into the seasonally adjusted data – specifically there is a decline in unemployment in the last third of the year (see bottom graph below). The initial claims are 5.8% lower (improving from 5.1% last week) than they were in this week in 2012. Claims remain elevated from the trend lines seen for most of 2012.
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending March 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 332,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 342,000. The 4-week moving average was 346,750, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 349,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent for the week ending March 2, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 2 was 3,024,000, a decrease of 89,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,113,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,098,250, a decrease of 28,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,126,500.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line)
