Texas factory activity increased in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.4 to 10, suggesting stronger output growth.
Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated growth in September. The new orders index rose to 5.3 following a reading of zero last month, suggesting a pickup in demand. The capacity utilization index advanced from 1.7 to 9.3, largely due to fewer manufacturers noting a decrease. The shipments index rose to 4.5, bouncing back into positive territory after falling to -2.3 in August.
Indexes reflecting broader business conditions were mixed. The general business activity index remained slightly negative but edged up from -1.6 to -0.9. The company outlook index was positive for the fifth month in a row but fell slightly to 2.4 from a reading of 4.1 in August.
Labor market indicators reflected slower labor demand growth and slightly longer workweeks. The employment index remained positive but fell to 5.9, its lowest reading in more than a year. Sixteen percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index moved up from -0.9 to 2.8.
Price pressures were mixed in September. The raw materials price index jumped nearly 12 points to 22.5, indicating a sharp rise in input costs. The finished goods price index held steady at -1.3, continuing to suggest a slight decline in selling prices. The wages and benefits index edged up from 13.5 to 15.4, although the majority of manufacturers continued to note no change in compensation costs. Looking ahead, 52 percent of respondents anticipate further increases in raw materials prices over the next six months, while 30 percent expect higher finished goods prices.
Expectations regarding future business conditions were more optimistic in September. The index of future general business activity rose sharply from -5.1 to 5.5, registering its first positive reading in three months.
Source: Dallas Fed
Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:
Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):
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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):
Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report)
Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Empire State Survey (green bar).
Comparing Surveys to Hard Data
In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.