Econintersect: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased slightly in October, but is up 5% from a year ago. Says Gad Levanon, Associate Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board:
“The increase in the Employment Trends Index in October, and the upward revisions for September and August, signal a slightly more optimistic outlook for jobs. However, given the deterioration in the confidence of consumers, businesses and investors in recent months, we think that the economy is simply not strong enough to deliver more than 125,000 jobs a month.”
This month’s strength in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from six out of the eight components. The eight components are:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Survey®)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of
Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The strengthening indicators include The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey®“Jobs Hard to Get,” Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Part-Time Workers for Economic Reasons, Job Openings, and Industrial Production.
Econintersect’s jobs index is also forecasting a weak jobs market for the rest of the year (analysis here).
Source: The Conference Board