Econintersect: Improvement in rail traffic counts have pushed U.S. railroad data further away from contraction – and now is in positive year-over-year growth across all metrics. However, this week traffic is down 1.0% from the previous week.
Weekly rail traffic has shown contraction year-over-year on four occasions since August. The latest data for week 41 of 2011 ending 15 October 2011, rail traffic grew 1.3% over the same week one year ago according to data provided by Railfax.Rail performance year to date for 2011 has been in an overall downtrend. The four week trendline was holding steady between 3% to 4% year-over-year improvement until late June. This week the 4 week average shows year-over-year growth at 2.5%, up from 2.1% last week. Econintersect believes low growth year-over-year is an economic warning that a recession is possible. But if growth slows no further, or starts to pick up, the threat of recession will begin to recede.
Major Commodity Groups | Total | Grain | Chemicals | Food | Forest | Metals | Coal | Autos | Intermodal |
Current Week | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 1.3% | (14.0%) | 4.0% | (0.8%) | (0.0%) | 13.6% | (2.0%) | 9.3% | 3.0% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.6% | 2.7% | 13.3% | (2.3%) | 4.5% | 48.9% | 3.8% | 24.9% | 18.6% |
4 Week Rolling Avg. | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 2.5% | (15.5%) | 5.8% | (3.0%) | 3.3% | 8.3% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 3.2% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.7% | (3.7%) | 14.7% | (2.1%) | 10.2% | 42.5% | 7.5% | 17.0% | 19.2% |
Quarter to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 1.8% | (12.2%) | 6.5% | (2.8%) | 3.3% | 6.9% | (0.3%) | 10.2% | 2.7% |
Vs. 2009 | 13.3% | (1.1%) | 15.0% | (4.4%) | 7.6% | 47.8% | 4.9% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
Year to Date | |||||||||
Vs. 2010 | 3.3% | (0.2%) | 4.9% | (2.8%) | 3.5% | 8.5% | (0.5%) | 7.6% | 5.3% |
Vs. 2009 | 14.0% | 12.7% | 15.3% | 0.1% | 7.4% | 52.5% | (0.3%) | 35.2% | 20.8% |
Four week rolling average
source: Railfax