Global Economic Intersection
Advertisement
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Investments
    • Invest in Amazon $250
  • Cryptocurrency
    • Best Bitcoin Accounts
    • Bitcoin Robot
      • Quantum AI
      • Bitcoin Era
      • Bitcoin Aussie System
      • Bitcoin Profit
      • Bitcoin Code
      • eKrona Cryptocurrency
      • Bitcoin Up
      • Bitcoin Prime
      • Yuan Pay Group
      • Immediate Profit
      • BitQH
      • Bitcoin Loophole
      • Crypto Boom
      • Bitcoin Treasure
      • Bitcoin Lucro
      • Bitcoin System
      • Oil Profit
      • The News Spy
      • Bitcoin Buyer
      • Bitcoin Inform
      • Immediate Edge
      • Bitcoin Evolution
      • Cryptohopper
      • Ethereum Trader
      • BitQL
      • Quantum Code
      • Bitcoin Revolution
      • British Trade Platform
      • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Reddit
    • Celebrities
      • Dr. Chris Brown Bitcoin
      • Teeka Tiwari Bitcoin
      • Russell Brand Bitcoin
      • Holly Willoughby Bitcoin
No Result
View All Result
Global Economic Intersection
No Result
View All Result

Infinite Monkeys: The Limits of Probability Theory

admin by admin
July 15, 2015
in Uncategorized
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS
Share on FacebookShare on Twitter

Article of the Week from Fixing the Economist

by Philip Pilkington

No one could be more frank, more painstaking, more free from
subjective bias or parti pris than Professor Tinbergen. There is
no one, therefore, so far as human qualities go, whom it would be
safer to trust with black magic. That there is anyone I would
trust with it at the present stage or that this brand of statistical
alchemy is ripe to become a branch of science, I am not yet
persuaded. But Newton, Boyle and Locke all played with
alchemy. So let him continue.

— John Maynard Keynes speaking of one of the pioneers of econometrics

Recently the blogger Lord Keynes over at the always excellent Social Democracy for the 21st Century blog has been doing some posts about probability theory (examples here, here and here). There is a famous theorem in statistics called the ‘Infinite Monkey Theorem’ which states that as n approaches infinity the probability Xn approaches zero. We’ll get back to this theorem later but let me lay down a theorem of my own — one which I hope that Lord Keynes and others interested in this topic pay attention to: as a person’s wonderment at probability theory approaches infinity the probability that they will get anything of worth done approaches zero.

I say this because the issues surrounding probability theory and economic theory, while they are so profound as to be possibly the most important part of economic theory, are nevertheless a rather basic and simple metaphysical puzzle that can be laid out in clear terms and thus answered in clear terms. Once you understand this puzzle you “get it” and the deeper you dig into probability theory, the more this puzzle will repeat itself. Indeed, this puzzle has already been laid out and answered by the Post-Keynesian economist Paul Davidson in his writings on ergodicity in the social sciences.

Everything comes down to this: do you believe that the future mirrors the past? Or, put another way: do you believe in deterministic laws that govern the universe and can be understood by human beings? Everyone can answer that question themselves. It is a metaphysical question that borders on the theological — and it really goes all the way back to the debate between Erasmus and More on the existence of free will. Again, everything comes down to this. No matter how deep you dig into probability theory you will not find any other question and so you can save yourself a great deal of time by pondering this question in pure form rather than getting caught up in the nuances of probability theory.


(Okay, I’m not saying just avoid the whole of probability theory. It is indeed interesting. But I would advise against becoming obsessed, as I know how obsessive the structure of theory is. It could potentially — and I mean this literally — drive a person mad because it takes the form of an infinite series of questions which never provide any answers, simply because the meta-question is the one I just laid out above.)


But back to the monkey theorem for a moment. The theorem states that if a monkey sits at a typewriter hitting random keys it will eventually come up with the collected works of Shakespeare. When expressed in mathematical form the theorem makes sense, but when stated anecdotally and “brought back down to earth”, as in the monkey example, it makes no sense at all. First of all, a monkey’s behavior does not generate random walks. What the anecdote does is replace a truly random-generating machine with a monkey, but the analogy is incorrect because a monkey would not behave in a properly random manner. Secondly, infinity does not exist in our oh-so finite reality. It is either a figment of our imagination or it is some divine space inhabited by a higher power.

This is important because we should remember what we are really dealing with when we are dealing with such theorems. People often mistake these theorems as saying something tangible about our lived reality. But often this is simply not the case. What these theorems do is absorb and disguise debates that used to take place among metaphysicians and theologians and then pretend as if certain questions which philosophers have been tackling since time immemorial have been answered. One is tempted to put this down to the hubristic tendencies in the scientific method itself.

Whatever the reason, however, the lesson for the Sciences of Man should be clear: these questions have not been answered; methods derived from disciplines like probability theory (for example: econometrics) probably have a very limited reach; and you’re not going discover the secrets of the universe by becoming an expert in these disciplines, although society may bestow you with a role similar to that occupied by a priest or a haruspex in times past. If this is indeed your goal well, as Keynes said all those years ago, Newton, Locke and Boyle played at alchemy, so by all means continue.


Previous Post

Yanis Varoufakis: Notes on the Euro Summit Agreement

Next Post

Greece: A Bad Deal for Everyone

Related Posts

How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price
Economics

How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price

by John Wanguba
May 29, 2023
Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security
Business

Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security

by John Wanguba
May 29, 2023
Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables
Business

Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables

by John Wanguba
May 27, 2023
Are Bitcoin Casinos Legal?
Business

Are Bitcoin Casinos Legal?

by John Wanguba
May 26, 2023
What Are Deposit Tokens?
Economics

What Are Deposit Tokens?

by John Wanguba
May 22, 2023
Next Post

Greece: A Bad Deal for Everyone

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin adoption Bitcoin market blockchain BTC business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Archives

  • May 2023
  • April 2023
  • March 2023
  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • November 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • May 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • August 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • December 2014
  • November 2014
  • October 2014
  • September 2014
  • August 2014
  • July 2014
  • June 2014
  • May 2014
  • April 2014
  • March 2014
  • February 2014
  • January 2014
  • December 2013
  • November 2013
  • October 2013
  • September 2013
  • August 2013
  • July 2013
  • June 2013
  • May 2013
  • April 2013
  • March 2013
  • February 2013
  • January 2013
  • December 2012
  • November 2012
  • October 2012
  • September 2012
  • August 2012
  • July 2012
  • June 2012
  • May 2012
  • April 2012
  • March 2012
  • February 2012
  • January 2012
  • December 2011
  • November 2011
  • October 2011
  • September 2011
  • August 2011
  • July 2011
  • June 2011
  • May 2011
  • April 2011
  • March 2011
  • February 2011
  • January 2011
  • December 2010
  • August 2010
  • August 2009

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized
Global Economic Intersection

After nearly 11 years of 24/7/365 operation, Global Economic Intersection co-founders Steven Hansen and John Lounsbury are retiring. The new owner, a global media company in London, is in the process of completing the set-up of Global Economic Intersection files in their system and publishing platform. The official website ownership transfer took place on 24 August.

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Recent Posts

  • How Will The US Debt Ceiling Crisis Affect Bitcoin Price
  • Blockchain-Based Reusable KYC Is A ‘Breakthrough’ For Web3 Security
  • Unlock the Future of Fashion with NFTs and Wearables

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

No Result
View All Result
  • Home
  • Contact Us
  • Bitcoin Robot
    • Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Code
    • Quantum AI
    • eKrona Cryptocurrency
    • Bitcoin Up
    • Bitcoin Prime
    • Yuan Pay Group
    • Immediate Profit
    • BitIQ
    • Bitcoin Loophole
    • Crypto Boom
    • Bitcoin Era
    • Bitcoin Treasure
    • Bitcoin Lucro
    • Bitcoin System
    • Oil Profit
    • The News Spy
    • British Bitcoin Profit
    • Bitcoin Trader
  • Bitcoin Reddit

© Copyright 2021 EconIntersect - Economic news, analysis and opinion.

en English
ar Arabicbg Bulgarianda Danishnl Dutchen Englishfi Finnishfr Frenchde Germanel Greekit Italianja Japaneselv Latvianno Norwegianpl Polishpt Portuguesero Romanianes Spanishsv Swedish