econintersect.com
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자
No Result
View All Result
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자
No Result
View All Result
econintersect.com
No Result
View All Result

Transport Is Saying Consumer Spending Should Slow Further

admin by admin
5월 23, 2015
in 미분류
0
0
SHARES
0
VIEWS

Written by Steven Hansen

When one analyzes the economy, there are always some sections which do better than others. When the economic growth is weak (like currently), several segments can be in contraction while others are expanding. 

There is a general softness and contraction of the transport sector which historically is aforward looking bellwether for the economy. There should be a general correlation between:

  • consumer consumption of goods vs.
  • transport.

Even with the poor GDP performance in 1Q2015, the consumer goods segment of the economy was expanding near its average rate for the 21st century.  

In analyzing the economy – I give higher weight to non-monetary measures – the main reason is the inaccuracy of inflation adjustments. It is far better to rely on counting non-monetary things – like trucks, ships, and trains which are not affected by inflation.

Rail traffic has been slowing for almost one year (barring a little noise). It is currently flat-lining near no growth.

Container through-put through the ports (even when filtering out the West Coast Labor issues) is in contraction. The data for this series continues to be weak. Not only is year-to-date volumes contracting for both imports and exports – but both April exports and imports are contracting month-over-month and year-over-year. This continues to indicate weak economic conditions domestically and globally.

Unadjusted Year-over-Year Change in Container Counts – Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach Combined – Imports (red line) and Exports (blue bars)

 


Also this past week, the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) trucking index declined 3% following an downwardly revised improvement of 0.4% in March. From ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello:

Like most economic indicators, truck tonnage was soft in April. Unless tonnage snaps back in May and June, GDP growth will likely be suppressed in the second quarter. Truck tonnage is off 5.3% from the high in January. The next couple of months will be telling for both truck freight and the broader economy. Any significant jump from the first quarter is looking more doubtful.

Goods transported are generally included in GDP (GDP recognizes goods at point of final sale or when warehoused) between one month and three months after movement. Transport is indicating the economy likely will be as least as bad in 2Q2015 as it was in 1Q2015.

Other Economic News this Week:

The Econintersect Economic Index for May 2015 is indicating growth will continue to be soft. The tracked sectors of the economy are relatively soft with most expanding but some contracting. The effects of the recently solved West Coast Port slowdown (a labor dispute which had been going on for months) and weather related issues are no longer evident in the raw data. Therefore, the economic slowdown forecast last month is cyclic and not resulting from transient causes.

The ECRI WLI growth index is now in positive territory but still indicates the economy will have little growth 6 months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Growth Index

The market was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 265,000 to 280,000 (consensus 270,000) vs the 274,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 271,750 (reported last week as 271,750) to 266,250. The rolling averages have been equal to or under 300,000 for most of the last 7 months.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – 4 Week Average – Seasonally Adjusted – 2011 (red line), 2012 (green line), 2013 (blue line), 2014 (orange line), 2015 (violet line)

/images/z unemployment.PNG

Bankruptcies this Week: Tortola, British Virgin Islands-based OAS Finance Limited,

Weekly Economic Release Scorecard:

Previous Post

The Stock Market Is The Economy, So …

Next Post

Early Headlines: US Should Listen to China, New US GDP Methodology, The End of Iraq and More

Related Posts

Bitcoin Is Finally Trading Perfectly Like 'Digital Gold'
Economics

Bitcoin Is Finally Trading Perfectly Like ‘Digital Gold’

by admin
Namibia Will Regulate And Not Ban Crypto With New Law
Finance

Namibia Will Regulate And Not Ban Crypto With New Law

by admin
6,746 ETH Valued At $12M Was Just Burned
Economics

6,746 ETH Valued At $12M Was Just Burned

by admin
Bitcoin Is Steady Above $29,000 Awaiting US NFP Figures
Economics

Bitcoin: What Next After Consolidation Ends?

by admin
US Government Offloads Another 8,200 Bitcoin – On-chain Data
Economics

US Government Offloads Another 8,200 Bitcoin – On-chain Data

by admin
Next Post

Early Headlines: US Should Listen to China, New US GDP Methodology, The End of Iraq and More

답글 남기기 응답 취소

이메일 주소는 공개되지 않습니다. 필수 필드는 *로 표시됩니다

Browse by Category

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

Browse by Tags

adoption altcoins bank banking banks Binance Bitcoin Bitcoin market blockchain BTC BTC price business China crypto crypto adoption cryptocurrency crypto exchange crypto market crypto regulation decentralized finance DeFi Elon Musk ETH Ethereum Europe Federal Reserve finance FTX inflation investment market analysis Metaverse NFT nonfungible tokens oil market price analysis recession regulation Russia stock market technology Tesla the UK the US Twitter

Categories

  • Business
  • Econ Intersect News
  • Economics
  • Finance
  • Politics
  • Uncategorized

© Copyright 2024 EconIntersect

No Result
View All Result
  • 토토사이트
    • 카지노사이트
    • 도박사이트
    • 룰렛 사이트
    • 라이브카지노
    • 바카라사이트
    • 안전카지노
  • 경제
  • 파이낸스
  • 정치
  • 투자

© Copyright 2024 EconIntersect