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Tag Archives: UCLA
April 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index: Improves??
Written by Steven Hansen The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) state their index has improved 0.1%, but this hapless index has actually fallen 2.7% unadjusted year-over-year (see caveats below).
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Autopsy: March 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Shows Economy In Recession
Written by Steven Hansen The authors of the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) have thrown in the towel in providing written interpretion their own index. What they wanted the index to do was mimic GDP and industrial production – … Continue reading
Posted in Transport
Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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February 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index Improves: It’s Broken but Useful
Written by Steven Hansen The February 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.7% (down 0.1% year-over-year). Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up … Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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January 2012 Ceridan-UCLA Index: Index Down But Is It Broken?
The January 2011 Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) fell 1.7% year-over-year, and 2.2% below year-ago levels. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is up 2.6% … Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Ceridan-UCLA Index: Negative Trend Continues December 2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.2 percent in December following the 1.1 percent increase in October and a 0.1% increase in November. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our … Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Ceridan-UCLA Index Up Slightly In November 2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) rose 0.1 percent in November following the 1.1 percent increase in October. Econintersect uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy – and our analysis is that the index is … Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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October 2011 Diesel Consumption Improves, Breaking Down Trend
As a reminder, last month the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) declined 1.0%. As diesel use is directly related to economic activity – this was a big deal. The PCI, which is designed to mimic GDP based on diesel … Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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September 2011 Diesel Index Trend Shows Economic Contraction Possible
The three month moving average of diesel consumption remains in a downward trend. The question is how close this data is to historical recession territory. Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Diesel Index for August 2011 Predicts a Bumpy Road Ahead
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) which is based on diesel consumption and is designed to mimic GDP declined 1.4% in August 2011. Econintersect which uses the PCI raw data to help forecast Main Street economy is seeing a bottoming process (a potential end to less good data). Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Diesel Index Says Economy Declined in July 2011
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) which is based on diesel consumption fell 0.2% seasonally adjusted. Econintersect’s review of the unadjusted data believes the contraction was greater – being almost 0.5% month-over-month. Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, Steven Hansen, truck, UCLA
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Diesel Use Rises in June 2011, But Suggests 2Q2011 GDP of 1.8%
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) diesel usage data is indicating a low spot in this economic sub-cycle. If July’s data shows an uptick in the three month moving average – it will confirm a new strengthening cycle. Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, truck, UCLA
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May 2011 Diesel Use Suggests Economy Was Slowing (or Not)
The May Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index result reinforces our long-held cautious outlook for below consensus growth in GDP, and suggests that GDP growth will be less than 2 percent for the second quarter. Y-o-Y data suggests the economy was stronger than the Ceridian-UCLA interpretation. Continue reading
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, truck, UCLA
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Diesel Usage Less Good – Is the Economy Slipping?
Diesel use in the USA was less good year-over-year (YoY) in April 2011. As the majority of goods are moved using diesel – diesel usage is one of the metrics Econintersect uses to gauge the economy.
Due to government data combining fuel oil with their statistics, Econintersect uses the unadjusted data provided by Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI). The index is based on real-time fuel consumption data for over the road trucking collected by Ceridian.
The YoY improvement was a small 1.28%. This is the lowest YoY increase since 2009. Definitely, the YoY growth of diesel for trucking is trending less good, i.e. the growth in diesel usage is slowing (decelerating). The first derivative (velocity) is still positive. The second derivative (acceleration) is negative.
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, industrial production, OIL, rail transport, truck, UCLA
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Diesel Fuel Consumption Grew in March
Diesel use is up in March despite rising fuel costs. This points to a continuing economic expansion in March. The rate of growth is slowing but there still is growth.
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Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, OIL, rail transport, truck, UCLA
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Are Rising Fuel Prices Beginning to Affect Economic Growth?
Year over year growth in diesel fuel use is continuing to degrade. Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged anderson school, Ceridian, diesel, economic growth, OIL, rail transport, UCLA
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Diesel Consumption: Predicting the Economic Effects of the Weather
Diesel consumption is down slightly MoM in January 2011, but this month’s diesel usage allowed postulating the economic effects of January’s snow storms. Continue reading
Posted in Transport
Tagged anderson school, ceridan, diesel, pci, snow storms, truck traffic, UCLA, weather effects
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Another Record High In December – Diesel Use
There are deep positive economic rumblings. Econintersect uses diesel usage to gauge future economic growth – and it is at historical highs for all Decembers since data collection began in 1999. Continue reading
Diesel Based Index Rises in November 2010
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, which predicts economic activity, rose slightly. There is a hidden trend line in the raw data suggesting a weak recovery. Continue reading
Ceridian – UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index Down Now for Two Months
Diesel fuel consumption is not indicating a growing economy, but is consistent with a zero to slow growth scenario. Continue reading
