Econintersect Analysis Blog
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Tag Archives: survey
Economy: Sick but not Dying
Last week I stated that “other than a horribly weak economy, there are no major signs indicating an outright contraction.“ This needs to be expanded as an economy is not a homogeneous mechanism that ebbs and flows in unison. There … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Forecast, Weekly Economic Summary
Tagged depression, ECRI, employment, recession, Steven Hansen, survey, transport, unemployment, WLI
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Philly Fed Business Outlook “Less Good” in May 2011
This month’s Philly Fed business outlook survey has reverted to almost exact values of one year ago using unadjusted data. Early evidence is accumulating that the current recovery sub-cycle may be peaking, a call made by Econintersect’s economic activity indicator in late March. Continue reading
Posted in Manufacturing
Tagged backlog, business, conditions, manufacturing, new orders, orders, Philly Fed, survey
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Philly Fed Business Survey Slightly Less Good in April 2011
The Philly Fed Business Survey quantitatively was less good in April 2011 – but this is a quantification of opinion, and changes may be real, or not. Continue reading
Posted in Manufacturing
Tagged backlog, business, conditions, manufacturing, new orders, orders, Philly Fed, survey
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Philly Fed Business Survey Record High
The economy is improving but the record high opinion of improving new orders is not a credible measurement of great strength. Continue reading
Posted in Federal Reserve, Manufacturing
Tagged employment, manufacturing, Philly Fed, survey
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NY Fed and Philly Fed Business Surveys Are For Different Universes
The businesses surveyed by the NY Fed and the Philadelphia Fed reside in different universes. One says conditions have collapsed, the other says they improved. Continue reading
Small Business Sentiment Improves – NOT
The headline says small business sentiment improved. Reading deeper finds that in many of the most important areas sentiment actually declined. Continue reading
September 2010 Empire Survey Shows Continuing Improvement
The September 2010 Empire State Manufacturing Survey continues to show improving trend lines on new orders and unfilled orders. This is a provisional confirmation of Econintersect’s view of continuing economic growth. Continue reading
