Tag Archives: summary

Coincident Data Providing Confirmation of Improving Economy

Written by Steven Hansen On Friday on CNBC, ECRI renewed their recession call – now saying a recession should hit by mid-year 2012.   Supporting evidence for this call was based on coincident data’s growth rate-of-change was falling to historical recession … Continue reading

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USA Employment: Looking Through the Chaos

Even a week after the January 2012 jobs report was released, pundits are still arguing over what it means.  I too have been mulling over the data.  The problem is that: There is significant controversy about the way the Bureau … Continue reading

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Is Sea Cargo Baltic Dry Index Decline Recessionary?

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is in recession territory.  It has been a good friend to pundits who make economic predictions.  Sorry to say, our friend is sick – but there is every reason to believe the illness was caused … Continue reading

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Real State of the Union: A Prisoner of Housing?

Can the USA economy really grab hold as long as the housing market remains weak?   This past week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at his press conference following the FOMC meeting acknowledged housing was the primary reason the current economic situation … Continue reading

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Comparative Risk: Costa Concordia, Fukushima, Europe

We make decisions daily in our investing life to make money knowing that there is a potential to lose money.  Seldom do we anticipate the possibility of losing the entire investment, and when we do consider this possibility, generally we … Continue reading

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China, India: A Hard Landing Is Very Unlikely

I continue to be a skeptic of the pundits rhetoric that a European recession could lead to a true contraction of the economies of China and India. This is unlikely, and bordering on impossible. China has a “command” (top down) … Continue reading

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2012 Predictions: Just a Dice Roll

Looking back at Econintersect’s 2011 predictions, I was rather pleased with their accuracy.  Predictions are not to be taken that seriously as they are an extrapolation of today’s knowledge – and introduce significant opinion to reach a particular conclusion. The … Continue reading

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USA: Headwinds for 2012 and Beyond

A rather frightening and somber forecast for the USA in the years to come was published by Econintersect this past week – USA in 2012/2016: An Insolvent and Ungovernable Country. In a nutshell, the European think tank LEAP/Europe 2020 sees: … Continue reading

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Arguing For the Coming Recession

No data in the grouping of economic indicators which historically lead the economy (and which Econintersect follows) is predicting an economic downturn. I considered listing the folks who think a recession is coming (including ECRI and John Hussman) with those … Continue reading

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Fixing the Eurozone – Old Fashioned Inflation and Deflation

For the past two weeks, my weekend summaries have focused on Europe.  The reason is simple – events in Europe are and will continue to affect the global business, financial and economic systems. Most economic theory subscribes to the notion … Continue reading

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A Hint of Sunshine In December Outlook

Last week’s dour overview of the potential effect of the Eurozone crisis seems inconsistent with Econintersect’s December 2011 economic forecast which suggests a weak but improving USA economy. There is no argument from the pundits that the USA economy seems … Continue reading

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The Coming of an Economic Firestorm?

Technical analysis of the data which historically predicts future USA economic movements reveals a number of metrics have strengthened in the last 30 days. The particular data sets used by Econintersect to develop forecasts show a similar pattern. Yet, beyond … Continue reading

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House Prices Have Further to Fall

Next week we will see the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data on existing home sales. The report should show a seasonally adjusted improvement in volume of home purchases – while home prices continue to contract – compared to volumes … Continue reading

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Don’t Look Now but Construction Spending is Up Y-o-Y

Continued growth is expected in construction spending which will be released next week. Americans are an impatient lot – and impatience can be a good thing. The economy is not strong enough, so it is argued something must be done. … Continue reading

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What Is In the Crystal Ball for Third Quarter GDP?

Historically, PCE’s year-over-year growth rate have averaged double GDP’s YoY growth rate. But the data itself in any particular period may not correlate. Continue reading

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Signs of Life in the Economy

Overall the data this week was remarkably strong. There were no new recessionary flags – and in some of the data, there were anti-recessionary flags. Continue reading

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Trade Balance is the Recessionary Metric to Watch Next Week

by Steven Hansen
When the headlines this week announce the trade gap has shrunk because of declining imports, it could be one more warning flag of a recession. Continue reading

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Weekly Highlights 07 October 2011

Table accompanies weekly economic review article at Global Economic Intersection – summary of the analysis, investing and opinion articles this week. Continue reading

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Next Week USA September Jobs Growth Likely Will be Bad

The EEI model says the economic drivers for employment growth will worsen in the coming months. Many will not like the message in this post – that employment is bad and likely will get worse. Continue reading

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Weekly Highlights 30 September 2011

Table accompanies weekly economic review article at Global Economic Intersection – summary of the analysis, investing and opinion articles this week. Continue reading

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