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Tag Archives: recession
Initial Claims Not Great but Not as Bad as Claimed
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The media exhibited much consternation today as economists’ consensus guess on first time unemployment claims turned out to be way too optimistic this week. That raised two questions in my mind. Was the number … Continue reading
Posted in Employment
Tagged dol, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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Preliminary May 2013 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest Since July 2007
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary number for May came in at 83.7, a major advance over the April final reading of 76.4. This is the highest level since July of 2007, prior to … Continue reading
Self-defeating Austerity Shocks
by Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov, Voxeu.org This article was originally published by Voxeu.org (May 3, 2013) Europe’s austerity-first approach has triggered research-based efforts to evaluate the effectiveness of debt-reduction strategies. This column, based on a US empirical study, suggests … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, Fuad Hasanov, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery, Reda Cherif
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What Do Weekly Unemployment Claims Tell us About Recession Risk?
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com Note from dshort: I’ve updated this commentary to include the latest labor force data in May’s release of the April employment report. Every Thursday I post an update on weekly unemployment claims shortly after the … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, GDP
Tagged Doug Short, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, recession, recovery, unemployment
3 Comments
Investment and Consumption
by Michael Pettis, China Financial Markets I have been arguing for several years that once China begins the adjustment process, which I expect to characterize the ten-year period of the current administration, growth rates must slow significantly. My expectation for long-term growth … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, macroeconomics
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, michael pettis, PPI, recession, recovery
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US Consumers Keep Spending Despite Reduced Pay
by Warren Mosler This article was originally published by Mosler Economics (Apr. 29, 2013) This is the current thinking, but the pieces don’t add up? Hoping I’m being too negative here… Comments below:
Austerity and Growth Perspectives: Europe, the IMF, China, and the US
Written by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction Over the last two decades, the trade-offs between more rapid economic growth and the need for governments to keep their financial houses in order has been a topic of worldwide debate. Controversy … Continue reading
Posted in China, Economics, Eurozone, GDP, International Economic data
Tagged China, consumer confidence, Elliott Morss, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, recovery
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More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing
More Bad News On Dying US Manufacturing- Excise Taxes Drop, But Markets Have Reason To Party On by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner [While US tax collections on everything went gangbusters in April, absolutely through the roof, there was one … Continue reading
March Factory Order Rebound Doesn’t Change Dismal Trend
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner New factory orders (actual, adjusted for inflation and not seasonally adjusted), which is a broader measure than durable goods orders because it includes non-durables, dropped 3.3% on a year to year basis in March. … Continue reading
Payrolls Gain But QE Has No Impact On Growth Rate
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner The BLS today reported a seasonally adjusted (SA) gain of 165,000 in April nonfarm payrolls, beating the consensus estimates of 140,000 to 155,000 from surveys of economists by mainstream media organizations. Surprise, surprise (not) … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, Personal Income and Consumption, Taxation, macroeconomics
Tagged BLS, Economy, employment, energy, Federal Reserve, GDP, Lee Adler, recession, recovery, unemployment
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March 2013 Manufacturing Is Now Contracting
Written by Steven Hansen US Census says manufacturing new orders declined in March. Our analysis concurs with the US Census that manufacturing is now contracting. The downward trends in manufacturing new and unfilled orders continues. The downward trend line has … Continue reading
Everyone’s Missing the Bigger Picture in the Reinhart-Rogoff Debate
by Washington’s Blog, Washington’s Blog The “Excel Spreadsheet Error” in Context You’ve heard that an incredibly influential economic paper by Reinhart and Rogoff (RR) – widely used to justify austerity – has been “busted” for “excel spreadsheet errors” and other … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, Government, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, ponzi finance, private debt, recession, Washington’s Blog
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Productivity 1Q2013 (Preliminary): Productivity Grows Faster than Costs
Written by Steven Hansen A simple summary of this release is that the rate of productivity growth is up , whilst the rate of growth of labor costs is down. Overall, comparing one year ago – productivity is growing faster … Continue reading
Posted in Employment, aa syndication
Tagged BLS, costs, labor, output, productivity, recession, Steven Hansen
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Economic Forecast May 2013: Stable Growth But ….
Written by Steven Hansen Our May 2013 Economic Forecast continues to say the economy will be expanding at a rate similar to April. This month the forecast is accompanied by some economic concerns – and although many data points are … Continue reading
April 2013 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Big Improvement, But Still Not Good
Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen The March 2013 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index had a strong showing after last month’s decline – and still remains at recessionary levels. The market expected this index to come in at 61.0 … Continue reading
Terminal Velocity (6) Update – “Flying Blind, On Fumes, With No Pilot”
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com In Terminal Velocity (4)[i], the possibility and conditions precedent for the “Helicopter” to land at Jackson Hole were discussed. The specific landing conditions were identified in Terminal Velocity (5). These conditions were observed as a … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Adam Whitehead, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, home sales, housing, inflation, recession, recovery
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Final April 2013 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Is Down From Last Month, But Still Up
by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives/dshort.com The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final number for April came in at 76.4, a welcome improvement over the preliminary reading of 72.3, but below the March final of 78.6. The Briefing.com consensus was for … Continue reading
Making The Case Against Austerity
by Stephanie Kelton This article was originally published in New Economic Perspectives Neil Irwin at Wonkblog has a new post up: The Deficit is Falling Fast. Can Washington Accept Victory? He quotes John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute, who says, … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Taxation, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, health care, inflation, recession, recovery, Stephanie Kelton
3 Comments
Is the Federal Reserve Breeding the Next Financial Crisis?
by Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Alessandro Rebucci This article was originally published in Voxeu.org Many economists think that the US Federal Reserve’s loose monetary stance in the 2000′s fueled the US housing bubble. Is the Fed thus responsible for the Global … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve
Tagged Alessandro Rebucci, Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, home sales, housing, recession, recovery, Voxeu
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Reinhart. Rogoff. Wrong.
by Dirk Ehnts, Econoblog101 This is a major scandal of economists finding a result which does not hold under closer scrutiny. Back in 2010, which is just the year that European austerity policies were put into place, the authors published … Continue reading
Posted in Government, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Dirk Ehnts, Economy, employment, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, recession, Reinhart, Rogoff, unemployment
3 Comments
