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Tag Archives: Menzie Chinn
Some New Estimates of Japanese Trade Elasticities
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com Appeared originally 11 April 2013 at Econbrowser. Image below added by Econintersect. One component of Abenomics is a vigorously expansionary monetary policy. The yen has depreciated substantially as a consequence – as of February, about 20% … Continue reading
Posted in Japan, Trade Data
Tagged consumer confidence, CPI, Economy, exports, GDP, imports, industrial production, inflation, Japan, Menzie Chinn
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Reflation and Expenditure Switching in a Two Speed World
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com This appeared originally at Econbrowser, 25 March 2013. Illustration above added by Econintersect. Chairman Bernanke says it all From a speech today by Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, at the LSE:
What If People Lived Forever . . .
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com This appeared originally at Econbrowser, 28 February 2013. In a New Keynesian DSGE (or a RBC) Infinite-Lived vs. Finite-Lived Agents Jim Hamilton’s discussion of the Mankiw Dorian Gray pill reminded me that we already have the … Continue reading
Posted in GDP, economic predictions, macroeconomics
Tagged Economy, GDP, inflation, Menzie Chinn, recovery
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Evolving Views on Fiscal Multipliers
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com This article was originally published at Econbrowser. Context relevant estimates suggest larger, not smaller, fiscal multipliers. In its newly released Budget and Economic Outlook, the CBO has published new estimates of potential GDP. In conjunction with … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, GDP, Government, macroeconomics, money
Tagged consumer confidence, Economy, Federal Reserve, GDP, inflation, Menzie Chinn
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How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser.com The debt ceiling and implications of: “We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.” and more recently “I think it is possible that we would shut down the government to make … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Federal Reserve, GDP, Government, US Treasury
Tagged debt ceiling, Economy, federal deficit, Federal Reserve, GDP, government shutdown, Menzie Chinn
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Falling Expenditures, Rising Receipts
Fiscal Slope Negotiations in the Context of Current Expenditures and Current Receipts by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser The latter (receipts) are stabilizing at extremely low levels. To place matters in perspective, note that even before 2008, tax revenues were low by … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Government, Taxation
Tagged Current Expenditures, Current Receipts, Econbrowser, Economy, EGTRRA, Fiscal Slope, GDP, government spending, inflation, JGTRRA, Menzie Chinn, tax reductions, taxation
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The Employment and GDP Relationship
The author – Menzie Chinn – evaluates the latest GDP release to conclude whether job creation is less than what would be expected, given the growth in real GDP. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Employment, GDP
Tagged employment, GDP, Menzie Chinn
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Lost Decades
by Menzie Chinn, Econbrowser Here’s my 25 minute presentation of Lost Decades at the Rotary Club of Madison, on January 4th (as recorded by Wisconsin Eye) Powerpoint. One point I made was that the global financial crisis and ensuing recession … Continue reading
Consumption: Distinguishing between Keynesian and Permanent Income Motivations, and Deleveraging
Guest Author: Menzie Chinn, who is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI – Vita. This post originally appeared December 5 at Econbrowser. One of the startling things … Continue reading
Posted in macroeconomics
Tagged debt, debt restructuring, deleverage, household debt, inflation, Menzie Chinn
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The Trillion Dollar War of Choice and the Constraints on Macro Policy
by Guest Author Menzie Chinn
The cost of the Iraq War has reached almost trillion dollars – at least $805.6 billion as of the end of September, not including debt service and additional reset costs; around $940 billion including interest payments.
As the US economy faces the prospects of stagnant growth or recession, it is of interest to see why the scope for fiscal policy is so circumscribed — that is, why is the debt level so high given that in the last year of the Clinton Administration we were paying down debt? Figure 1 depicts part of the answer (other parts, here). Continue reading
Posted in Government, macroeconomics
Tagged deficits, federal budget, fiscal policy, foreign policy, Iraq War, Menzie Chinn
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Is There Really A Mystery Why More Jobs Are Not Being Created?
I think it worthwhile to remember that fiscal policy (both at the Federal and the state and local level) is moving toward contraction. That is, while the level of GDP and employment is higher than it otherwise would be, the direction of policy is adding a negative factor to growth (I have to say these things because lots of people have evidenced an inability to differentiate between level and gradient). Continue reading
Forecasts: What and How Do Business Economists Think?
The WSJ and Philadelphia Fed surveys of economists were released a couple of weeks ago. It’s of interest to consider what they imply for the macro outlook, and additionally, how they believe inflation will evolve as a function of other variables. As these economists are, on average, a fairly conservative group, it may surprise some that about 50% felt that federal budget cuts would hurt the economy over the next two years. Continue reading
Posted in Studies
Tagged austerity, deficits, federal budget, Menzie Chinn, recovery, stimulus, tax cuts
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Chinese Inflation and the Impact on the U.S. Economy
There is a possibility that protracted inflation in China could contribute to a curative effect on the negative current account balance of the U.S. However, the complexities involved do not make that outcome a foregone conclusion. Part of the impacts will involve increased costs for imported goods in the U.S. and another could be an increase in U.S. exports and improvement in American wages. Prof. Chinn points out some of the complex trade-offs that impact the ossible outcome scenarios. Continue reading
Posted in China, Prices - PPI, CPI and More
Tagged current account balance, dollar, exports, inflation, Menzie Chinn, Renminbi, trade balance, trade deficit, trade surplus, Yuan
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Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations
Economic growth is expected to slow when a currency appreciates but there is little reason think that there will necessarily be serious adverse consequences. Continue reading
Posted in China, Trade Data
Tagged balance of payments, currency appreciation, global imbalances, Menzie Chinn
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The Great Debate©: Stimulus – Supply Side or Demand Side?
Supply side and demand side arguments can be made to support the stimulative effects of the new tax bill. Sometimes it seems that both sides support or depreciate a particular item for different reasons. Casey Mulligan and Menzie Chinn present articulate arguments about the new tax bill with differing foci. Continue reading
Posted in Great Debate©, Uncategorized
Tagged Casey Mulligan, demand side, Menzie Chinn, stimulus, supply side, tax bill
6 Comments
Losing the Battle, Winning the War?
Menzie Chinn discusses the economic implications of the G-20 meeting’s aftermath. He feels the long term implications are not as negative as some proclaim Continue reading
Posted in Government, International Economic data, Trade Data
Tagged G-20, Menzie Chinn, Seoul, trade
4 Comments
Tax Cuts and Falling Tax Revenues in the 2000s
Most of the years (7 out of 10) since the tax cuts of 2001 have seen lower tax revenues than before the tax cuts. Continue reading
