Econintersect Analysis Blog
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Tag Archives: institute for supply management
June 2012 ISM Services Index, Important Components Decline
Written by Steven Hansen The June 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index continues its 2+ year growth cycle, but fell moderately from 53.7 to 52.1 (above 50 signals expansion). This was below the market forecast of 53.0. The economically intuitive components of … Continue reading
June 2012 ISM Manufacturing Warns of Sector Contraction
Written by Steven Hansen The ISM Manufacturing survey for June 2012 (released today) points just fell off of a cliff – and is marginally in contraction, but the sub-index which historically correlates to the economy fell even deeper into contraction … Continue reading
May 2012 ISM Services Index Improves, Above Expectations
Written by Steven Hansen The May 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index continues its 2+ year growth cycle, rising marginally from 53.5 to 53.7 (above 50 signals expansion). The index value was above market estimates which ranged from 52.0 to 53.1. The … Continue reading
May 2012 ISM Manufacturing Declines, Important Component Strengthens
Written by Steven Hansen The ISM Manufacturing survey for May 2012 (released today) points to an improving economy, even though the main index declined. The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) declined from 54.8 to 53.5 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and … Continue reading
April 2012 ISM Services: Less Good but Still Indicating Growth
Written by Steven Hansen The April 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index continues its 2+ year growth cycle, but fell from 56.0 to 53.5 (above 50 signals expansion). The number was below market estimates which ranged from 55.5 to 56.5. The most … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing Shows Solid Growth In April 2012
Written by Steven Hansen The ISM Manufacturing survey for April 2012 (released today) points to an improving economy. The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) improved from 53.4 to 54.8 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). This was above expectations to … Continue reading
March 2012 ISM Services Index Down, Has Bipolar Tendencies
Written by Steven Hansen The March 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index continues a strong growth cycle falling from 57.3 to 56.0 (above 50 signals expansion). The number was at the low end of market estimates ranging from 56.0 to 56.7. The … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing March 2012 Is Not Rosy
Written by Steven Hansen The headlines say ISM Manufacturing survey is up, yet the trends in the economic intuitive elements of the survey continue to show a “less good” trend. The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) improved from 52.4 to … Continue reading
ISM Non-Manufacturing Shows an Improving Economy February 2012
Written by Steven Hansen The February 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index continues a strong grow cycle rising from 56.8 to 57.3 (above 50 signals expansion). The number was above market estimates ranging from 56.0 to 57.0. The most important elements of … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing February 2012 Decline Likely is Noise
Written by Steven Hansen The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) declined from 54.7 to 52.4 in February 2012 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). This was disappointing to the market which expected between 54.5 and 54.7. Econintersect sees the new … Continue reading
January 2012 ISM Non-Manufacturing Results Unexpectedly Strong
The January 2012 ISM non-manufacturing index blew the doors off of pundits expectations rising from 53.0 to 56.8 (above 50 signals expansion) – with the market expecting 53.0 to 53.1. The most important elements of this survey remain clearly in … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing Looks Good in January 2012
The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) improved from 53.1 (downwardly revised from 53.9) to 54.1 in January 2012 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). The improvement was disappointing to the market which expected between 54.5 and 55.0. Econintersect sees the … Continue reading
December 2011 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Improves Modestly
The ISM non-manufacturing index bounced up slightly in December to 52.6 but only relative to November – September 2011 was 53.0, October was a little lower at 52.9, and November was lower still at 52.0. Above 50, business is expanding. … Continue reading
December 2011 ISM Manufacturing Shows Improving Economy
The ISM Manufacturing survey index (PMI) improved from 52.7 to 53.9 in December 2011 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). The improvement was better than expected; the market expected between 53.2 and 53.4. Econintersect sees the new orders sub-index as … Continue reading
Key Elements of ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Improve in November 2011
The ISM non-manufacturing index seems to be eroding – September 2011 was 53.0, October was a little lower at 52.9, and now November is lower still at 52.0. Above 50, business is expanding. Please see caveats at the end of … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing Rose Above Expectations in November 2011
The ISM Manufacturing survey index improved from 50.8 to 52.7 in November 2011 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). The market expected between 50.5 and 51.0. Econintersect does not consider this index an accurate projection of the current situation in … Continue reading
October 2011 ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Is Not Recessionary but Still Not Pretty
The ISM non-manufacturing index fell slightly from 53.0 to 52.9 in October 2011. Above 50, business is expanding. Please see caveats at the end of this post on use of the data in this survey. There are two sub-indexes in … Continue reading
ISM Manufacturing Shows Expansion in October 2011 but Disappoints
The ISM Manufacturing survey index declined from 51.6 to 50.8 in October 2011 (50 separates manufacturing contraction and expansion). This was below market expectations of 53.0. Econintersect does not consider this index an accurate projection of the current situation in … Continue reading
ISM Non-Manufacturing Has An Improving Recession Datapoint in September 2011
I have hit upon a portion of the ISM non-manufacturing index which has correctly indicated the last two recessions – and has only one false indication. Continue reading
Marginal Improvement in ISM Manufacturing in September 2011
One point is obvious – recent recessions have not occurred unless the ISM was negative year-over-year before the recession – and it is currently positive. Continue reading
