Econintersect Analysis Blog
Tag Archives: IMF
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Germany … the miracle economy of Europe:
by Michael Pettis The IMF’s II Houng Lee, Murtaza Syed, and Liu Xueyan have published a very interesting and widely noticed study called “Is China Over-Investing and Does it Matter?” In it they argue that there is strong evidence that … Continue reading
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction In earlier articles, I have talked of the “weak sisters” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) together, arguing they will never be able to compete with Germany and other more “efficient” Eurozone countries. Of … Continue reading
by Elliott Morss Austerity – What Should Have Been Learned The IMF should have known that austerity policies (reduce government deficits) cause unemployment to grow. After all, its own research found that a reduction in the government deficit of 1% … Continue reading
By EconMatters In a recent working paper, researchers at the the IMF (International Monetary Fund) attempt to reconcile the Peak Oil debate that whether resource constraints will dictate the future of oil output and prices, or advance in technology motivated … Continue reading
by Elliott Morss Earlier, I noted there were two parts to IMF Stand-By Program for Greece: austerity and increasing its competitiveness. However, by the beginning of 2012, the IMF had concluded that the austerity part of its plan for Greece … Continue reading
by Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann
With economists’ eyes fixed squarely on Greece, this column tries to solve a puzzle. Since 2008, tens of billions of euros have fled Greek bank accounts. Yet somehow the country still has a current-account deficit. Where has this money come from?
Normally, things don’t work like this for nations in crisis. Greece has experienced severe capital flight yet its current-account deficit has remained almost unchanged; its international reserves are little changed. On net, €24 billion of private capital left the country between 2008 and 2010, but Greece still managed to accumulate a €85 billion current-account deficit – 12% of GDP.
Where has the money come from? The answer can be found by looking at the balance of payments statistics. Continue reading
The IMF was not set up to design and implement stimulus packages, nor has unemployment ever been a high-priority concern. But when an economy is overheated, usually manifested by a rapidly expanding money supply, large government and trade deficits, and inflation, it knows how to apply the screws. And it would appear that in the case of Greece and a number several other Euro countries, it is most definitely time to apply the screws. Continue reading
If enough financial help is provided through a joint venture between the IMF and the European Union, Ireland will have the chance to restore confidence without issuing new debt in the coming months. Continue reading
How much capital should banks hold to cover their risk? This column argues that the preoccupation with capital rules misses a more fundamental concern. No amount of feasible regulatory capital can be an appropriate substitute for robust asset selection and valuation standards of banks.
The attempt to levy a settlement that can not be paid on Iceland is reminiscent of the settlements post World War I which paved the way for world chaos a generation later. Continue reading
There seem to be some weak and also some fairly good correlations between foreclosures and unemployment. However, there seem to be other factors as well. States with the largest housing bubbles all fall in the group of states with the biggest foreclosure problems. Perhaps a combination of size of bubble and high unemployment could explain which states have the biggest foreclosure problems. Continue reading