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Tag Archives: Germany
That German Miracle…
by Constantin Gurdgiev, TrueEconomics.Blogspot.in Germany … the miracle economy of Europe:
Posted in Eurozone, GDP, macroeconomics, money
Tagged Constantin Gurdgiev, Economy, GDP, Germany, IMF, ppp
2 Comments
Stratfor: Europe, Unemployment and Instability
By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor The global financial crisis of 2008 has slowly yielded to a global unemployment crisis. This unemployment crisis will, fairly quickly, give way to a political crisis. The crisis involves all three of the major … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged employment, EU, Europe, France, George Friedman, Germany, Italy, Stratfor, UK, unemployment, usa
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Euro Crisis: Are Germany and IMF Lighting a Fuse?
by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance Introduction In earlier articles, I have talked of the “weak sisters” (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) together, arguing they will never be able to compete with Germany and other more “efficient” Eurozone countries. Of … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged austerity, Elliott Morss, Eurozone, Germany, Greece, IMF, Italy, Portugal, Spain, weak sisters
1 Comment
Austerity to Growth – IMF Double-Talk on Greece and Spain
by Elliott Morss Austerity – What Should Have Been Learned The IMF should have known that austerity policies (reduce government deficits) cause unemployment to grow. After all, its own research found that a reduction in the government deficit of 1% … Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, International Economic data
Tagged austerity, contraction, ECB, Elliott Morss, eurocrisis, Eurozone, Germany, Greece, IMF, Italy, Portugal, recession, Spain
2 Comments
Germany: Follow China
by Kamil Yilmaz, Voxeu Germany’s fiscal response to the crisis was timid compared with those of China and the US. This column uses business-cycle connectedness indices to show that Germany should follow in the footsteps of China and increase its … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Eurozone, macroeconomics
Tagged China, Germany, Germany expansion, global connectedness, Kalmil Yilmaz, periphery Europe austerity, Voxeu
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The Future of the Global Wine Industry
by Elliott Morss Introduction Over the last 30 years, dramatic changes in the wine industry have occured. From being almost completely domiciled in four European countries (France, Italy, Spain, and Germany), it has spread worldwide to include the US, Australia, … Continue reading
Posted in wine
Tagged Argentina, Australia, Chile, China, Elliott Morss, France, Germany, Italy, New Zealand, South Africa, Spain, U.S., wine
2 Comments
Is Decoupling Possible in a Global Economy?
by Macrotides An improvement in U.S. economic data in the fourth quarter has convinced many investment strategists that the U.S. will continue to grow 2% to 3% in 2012, absent a Lehman Brothers type of crisis in Europe. After all, … Continue reading
Posted in International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged Brazil, China, Europe, Eurozone, Germany, Greece, inflation, interest rates, Italy, macrotides, Portugal, slowdown, Spain, unemployment
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Trade Reversal: If Not Now, When?
by Michael Pettis Europe’s underlying problem is not budget deficits or even unsustainable debt. These are mainly symptoms. The real problem with Europe is the huge divergence in costs between the core and the periphery – in the past decade … Continue reading
Posted in China, Eurozone, Trade Data
Tagged capital flows, China, current account balance, debt, domestic consumption, Germany, michael pettis, trade balance, trade deficit, trade surplus, trade war
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Has Anything Changed in the Euro Crisis?
by Elliott Morss Introduction The leaders of the Euro countries held meetings late into the night last week. They announced new steps but the UK would not go along. So instead of new rules for the European Union, they had … Continue reading
Can There be Reason for Optimism in the Eurozone?
by Elliott Morss Introduction It was interesting that on Friday, the talking heads and stock markets were quite bullish on developments in the Eurozone. What really happened last week? We had two changes of government and a new “weak sister” … Continue reading
How Germany Did Not Profit From The Euro
by Dr. Dirk Ehnst
Often in articles on the euro zone crisis I read things like this (written by Michael Pettis):
“In the end this is Germany’s crisis to resolve, not China’s. Germany has benefited tremendously from the euro. Nearly all of its growth in the past decade can be explained by its rising trade surplus which, given monetary policy driven almost exclusively by the needs of slow-growing and consumption-repressed Germany, came at the expense of the rest of Europe.”
I think this is basically right, but on the other hand misleading. Let me point out two things. Continue reading
More Unwise Trade Intervention Likely
by Michael Pettis Last week’s Senate bill on Chinese currency intervention predictably enough brought out all the same old arguments about international trade, and just as predictably has hardened the opposing positions in the debate. Unfortunately the difference between a … Continue reading
Posted in China, Eurozone
Tagged balance of payments, China, currency revaluation, Eurozone, Germany, interest rates, michael pettis, reminbi, trade deficit, trade surplus, U.S.
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September 2011 Global Macro Picture
The tightening of monetary policy over the last year by China, India, and Brazil will cause their domestic economies to slow. Coupled with the slowdown in developed countries, global growth is set to slow for the rest of 2011 and early 2012. The European debt crisis is going to get worse, and it also will have a negative effect on global growth. Continue reading
Posted in China, Eurozone, India, International Economic data, Latin America, macroeconomics
Tagged Brazil, China, Europe, Germany, Greece, India, inflation, interest rates, Italy, macrotides, Portugal, slowdown, Spain
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Vendor Financing and Fallacies of Composition
Humans are not rational in the truth-maximizing sense of the term. They do not want to know the whole truth if some parts of truth contradict what they want to happen. Humans are values-maximizing in the short run, not truth maximizing in the long run. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone, International Economic data
Tagged debt, Derryl Hermanutz, Europe, Germany, Greece, repayment
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EU: Treating Symptoms, Ignoring Disease
The bail-out plan brings no real news. Europe keeps on fighting the crisis by keeping Greece on financial life support and demanding austerity. There is still no coherent theory to explain how this exactly should work. Continue reading
Posted in Eurozone
Tagged bailout, debt crisis, Dirk Ehnts, EU, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal
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Global Menance: Current Account Dilemma
I find the moaning and gnashing of teeth over the possible erosion of the value of claims accumulated by surplus countries surreal. There is only one possible way to avoid that erosion of value, and that requires that the surplus countries work with the deficit countries to reverse the trade imbalances. If the surplus countries refuse to take the necessary steps, an erosion in the value of those claims is the automatic and necessary consequence. In practice that means that either the claims must be devalued or they will lead to default. Continue reading
Posted in International Economic data, macroeconomics
Tagged China, debt, Germany, global, imbalance, michael pettis, Spain, surplus, trade, usa
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Global Wine Market: How Europe Competes
There is a sense that European wines, while good, are expensive. In actual fact, European wines compete price-wise with Southern Hemisphere wines. The following table provides data on wines priced $15 or lower that scored 89 or more by Wine Spectator tasters (my experience is that a Wine Spectator 89 rating denotes a good wine). 64% of the reds and 38% of the whites with scores of 89 or better were from Europe. That means there are plenty of good, reasonably priced European wines available. Continue reading
Posted in wine
Tagged Elliott Morss, France, Germany, Italy, Patrick Dubsky, Portugal, Spain, wine, wine speculator, Winestone
1 Comment
The Great Debate©: Schäuble Speaks his Mind – Dirk Ehnts Responds
Those with a trade balance surplus want to solve imbalances by deflating economies with a trade deficit. German Minister of Finance, Wolfgang Schäuble, argues for this while Dierk Ehnts explains why that is destructive to the global economy. Continue reading
Posted in Business News and Analysis, Government, Great Debate©, International Economic data, Trade Data
Tagged China, Germany, trade, trade balance, U.S., Wolfgang Schäuble
5 Comments
Demographic Time Bombs – They May Not be What You Think
Long term (over 20-30 years) demographics will favor the U.S. over Germany and China in international trade. Continue reading
Posted in International Economic data, Trade Data
Tagged aging, China, demographics, Europe, Germany, India, international trade, Japan
2 Comments
Global Imbalances: Is Germany the New China? A Sceptical View
In the long run demographics will mitigate trade imbalances that currently exist. Continue reading
